Farm AK-47
A case on Skin.club (Farm cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$0.54
Advertised RTP
92.97%
EV $0.50 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.07%
204K openings, odds method
Variance
95.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 323
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.90% – 92.24%, 204,411 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 205K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/easy_ak47, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.54 | 92.97% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.54 | 92.91% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.55 | 92.84% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.54 | 92.82% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.54 | 93.02% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.54 | 92.73% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.55 | 92.97% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.55 | 93.23% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.54 | 93.22% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.55 | 93.07% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.57 | 91.95% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.56 | 93.28% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.58 | 92.00% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.58 | 91.81% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.58 | 91.98% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.57 | 92.02% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.57 | 91.96% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.56 | 93.29% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.55 | 92.68% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.56 | 91.71% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.55 | 92.03% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.55 | 91.94% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.56 | 91.89% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.56 | 91.95% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.56 | 92.02% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.56 | 92.29% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.57 | 92.24% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.56 | 92.11% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.55 | 91.87% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.54 | 93.30% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%Ancient 0.2%red 0.0%covert 0.1%Rare 99.5%best hit $138 (247.2x)