Farm AWP
A case on Skin.club (Farm cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$0.59
Advertised RTP
93.17%
EV $0.55 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.73%
149K openings, odds method
Variance
84.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 244
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 6,667 | $157 | 4.3% | 30 | 22.4 | 1.34× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 4,000 | $137 | 6.2% | 22 | 37.4 | 0.59× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $108 | 5.9% | 52 | 44.8 | 1.16× |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,500 | $98.80 | 7.2% | 50 | 59.8 | 0.84× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,667 | $71.47 | 7.8% | 111 | 89.7 | 1.24× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,429 | $63.32 | 8.1% | 108 | 104.6 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,250 | $55.24 | 8.0% | 130 | 119.6 | 1.09× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,111 | $53.92 | 8.8% | 176 | 134.5 | 1.31× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 1,111 | $38.33 | 6.3% | 122 | 134.5 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 833 | $29.10 | 6.4% | 113 | 179.4 | 0.63× |
| AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 303 | $12.76 | 7.7% | 523 | 493.2 | 1.06× |
| Charm | Pocket AWPcharm · Rare | 99.1% | $0.13 | 23.4% | 148,028 | 148045.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/easy_awp, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.17%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.59 | 93.17% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.60 | 93.05% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.60 | 92.76% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.60 | 92.65% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.60 | 92.40% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.58 | 93.12% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.59 | 92.95% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.59 | 93.05% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.59 | 92.99% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.59 | 92.80% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.59 | 93.24% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.60 | 92.87% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.61 | 92.99% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.61 | 92.97% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.61 | 93.23% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.62 | 91.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.61 | 91.84% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.60 | 93.18% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.59 | 92.86% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.59 | 92.61% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.60 | 92.27% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.59 | 92.26% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.60 | 92.07% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.60 | 92.31% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.60 | 92.26% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.59 | 92.44% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.60 | 92.16% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.60 | 92.23% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.60 | 92.43% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.60 | 92.34% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 0.0%covert 0.3%classified 0.1%rare 0.2%Legendary 0.3%Rare 99.1%best hit $162 (269.5x)