Farm M4

A case on Skin.club (Farm cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.75

Advertised RTP

92.39%

EV $0.69 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.65%

185K openings, odds method

Variance

1307.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 345

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

69.32%±52.0818.7K openings

7 days

87.67%±18.48154K openings

30 days

84.65%±16.99185K openings

since tracking started

84.65%±16.99185K openings

16.5%69.3%122.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18.7K	69.32%±52.1	−0.9σ	odds
7d	154K	87.67%±18.5	−0.5σ	odds
30d	185K	84.65%±17.0	−0.9σ	odds
All	185K	84.65%±17.0	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 186K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 50,000	$5,921	17.1%	2	3.7	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$122	4.1%	55	42.7	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$119	6.0%	88	65.0	1.35×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$102	7.4%	88	92.8	0.95×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$84.94	7.4%	110	111.4	0.99×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$73.50	6.4%	77	111.4	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 1,667	$71.73	6.2%	115	111.4	1.03×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$63.41	6.4%	223	129.9	1.72×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,250	$63.32	7.3%	96	148.5	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$59.23	8.5%	208	185.6	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 833	$22.98	4.0%	162	222.7	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 417	$10.31	3.6%	470	445.5	1.06×
Sealed Graffiti \| Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common	99.1%	$0.11	15.7%	183,928	183951.4	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/easy_m4, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandMister Fister$0.68$6,0138,843x5d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$0.68$5,9858,801x6d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband悲伤猪头肉$0.72$5,7998,055x1d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandRapid$0.74$5,7997,837x1d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandZabuza$0.76$5,6577,444x2d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.68$126185.5x7d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPhồng Tôm$0.68$126185.5x7d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMudug$0.68$126184.8x6d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertgazi27er$0.68$125184.2x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · CommonJozé Delivery$0.75$0.110.15x58s

Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$0.75$0.110.15x58s

Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$0.75$0.110.15x2m

Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · CommonJoeSaga6$0.75$0.110.15x2m

Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · Common$0.75$0.110.15x3m

Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink)graffiti · CommonadR$0.75$0.110.15x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.75	92.39%	13
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.75	92.16%	13
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.73	93.05%	13
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.73	92.96%	13
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.74	92.04%	13
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.73	91.90%	13
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.72	93.00%	13
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.73	92.11%	13
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.76	92.27%	13
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.76	92.63%	13
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.76	92.69%	13
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.77	91.93%	13
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.77	92.66%	13
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.77	92.59%	13
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.78	91.94%	13
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.77	92.56%	13
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.77	92.88%	13
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.70	92.45%	13
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.74	92.57%	13
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.75	92.68%	13
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.75	92.31%	13
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.74	92.67%	13
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.74	92.44%	13
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.68	92.70%	13
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.68	92.87%	13
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.68	93.05%	13
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.69	91.93%	13
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.68	92.59%	13
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.69	91.83%	13
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.68	92.85%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 0.3%classified 0.1%rare 0.1%red 0.1%pink 0.1%Legendary 0.2%Common 99.1%best hit $6,013 (8,843x)