Fade Battle

A case on Skin.club (Battle cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$24.36

Advertised RTP

92.48%

EV $22.53 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.20%

66.4K openings, odds method

Variance

9.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.78%±6.907,385 openings

7 days

93.10%±2.7048.9K openings

30 days

92.20%±2.3166.4K openings

since tracking started

92.20%±2.3166.4K openings

81.0%88.8%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7,385	88.78%±6.90	−1.1σ	odds
7d	48.9K	93.10%±2.70	+0.4σ	odds
30d	66.4K	92.20%±2.31	−0.3σ	odds
All	66.4K	92.20%±2.31	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 10,000	$2,372	1.1%	3	6.6	0.45×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,122	0.9%	8	6.6	1.20×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,471	0.7%	14	6.6	2.11×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$1,277	1.1%	9	13.3	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 3,333	$953	1.3%	21	19.9	1.05×
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$907	1.6%	28	26.6	1.05×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 1,429	$562	1.7%	49	46.5	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 769	$434	2.5%	88	86.4	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 526	$358	3.0%	114	126.3	0.90×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$340	3.0%	133	132.9	1.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 435	$313	3.2%	170	152.9	1.11×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$307	3.4%	154	166.2	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 385	$296	3.4%	184	172.8	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 370	$292	3.5%	188	179.5	1.05×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 370	$291	3.5%	161	179.5	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 345	$273	3.5%	174	192.8	0.90×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$188	3.7%	319	292.5	1.09×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 192	$187	4.3%	339	345.7	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 185	$171	4.1%	336	359.0	0.94×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 123	$139	5.0%	551	538.4	1.02×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 123	$134	4.8%	498	538.4	0.92×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 112	$132	5.2%	569	591.6	0.96×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 110	$122	4.9%	588	604.9	0.97×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$112	5.5%	739	731.2	1.01×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$95.65	5.1%	826	797.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 56	$82.18	6.6%	1,248	1196.5	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$35.67	4.7%	2,001	1967.6	1.02×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	11.5%	$10.42	5.3%	7,495	7644.5	0.98×
Sticker \| Fade Lethalsticker · high	74.2%	$1.03	3.4%	49,467	49350.3	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/fade-battle, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicJoeMan$24.46$2,468100.9x2d

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicMarlen$24.53$2,37996.98x14h

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicUNKNOWN OREO$25.03$2,36294.38x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertSuddendeath21$24.83$2,24790.50x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$24.57$2,20489.71x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$25.03$2,17586.90x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertev1l$24.59$2,17288.31x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$24.58$2,17288.34x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$24.50$2,16688.39x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertkarpiuu$24.51$2,14187.36x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · high$24.22$0.790.03x6m

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBokii_86$24.22$10.420.43x6m

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · highBokii_86$24.22$0.790.03x9m

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · highNot Moon$24.22$0.790.03x9m

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · highkulyalele$24.22$0.790.03x9m

★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertAverageDad_$24.22$1225.03x9m

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · highmrporkchop25$24.22$0.790.03x11m

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted𝓨𝓾𝓷𝓰$24.22$10.420.43x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$24.36	92.48%	29
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$24.51	92.49%	29
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$24.53	92.51%	29
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$24.47	92.50%	29
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$24.44	92.51%	29
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$24.45	92.50%	29
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$24.47	92.50%	29
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$24.51	92.52%	29
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$24.45	92.50%	29
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$24.46	92.49%	29
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$24.57	92.48%	29
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$24.78	92.51%	29
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$24.76	92.51%	29
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$24.80	92.48%	29
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$24.78	92.51%	29
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$24.90	92.51%	29
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$24.81	92.48%	29
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$24.79	92.51%	29
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$24.80	92.49%	29
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$24.86	92.51%	29
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$24.78	92.52%	29
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$24.72	92.49%	29
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$24.63	92.49%	29
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$24.59	92.51%	29
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$24.46	92.52%	29
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$24.59	92.50%	29
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$24.58	92.48%	29
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$24.49	92.49%	29
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$24.50	92.49%	29
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$24.46	92.48%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 1.4%covert 5.8%restricted 11.5%legendary 0.1%Immortal 0.7%classified 0.4%extraordinary 1.1%Ancient 1.8%mil spec 3.0%high 74.2%best hit $2,468 (100.9x)