Farm Charms
A case on Skin.club (Farm cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$0.41
Advertised RTP
92.56%
EV $0.38 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.93%
45.9K openings, odds method
Variance
131.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 345
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Butane Buddycharm · Ancient | 1 in 1,250 | $132 | 27.9% | 38 | 36.7 | 1.03× |
| Charm | Lil' Boocharm · Ancient | 1 in 1,000 | $77.95 | 20.5% | 43 | 45.9 | 0.94× |
| Charm | Lil' Eldritchcharm · Ancient | 1 in 909 | $27.46 | 8.0% | 59 | 50.5 | 1.17× |
| Charm | Quick Silvercharm · red | 1 in 833 | $25.56 | 8.1% | 63 | 55.1 | 1.14× |
| Charm | Hot Howlcharm · Ancient | 1 in 769 | $19.21 | 6.6% | 47 | 59.7 | 0.79× |
| Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b | 1 in 714 | $7.44 | 2.7% | 61 | 64.3 | 0.95× |
| Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · Rare | 99.3% | $0.10 | 26.2% | 45,613 | 45611.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/farm-charms, 12 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 15:00 UTC | $0.41 | 92.56% | 7 |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $0.41 | 91.74% | 7 |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.41 | 91.63% | 7 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.40 | 93.32% | 7 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.39 | 92.32% | 7 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.39 | 93.47% | 7 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.39 | 92.46% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.39 | 91.70% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.40 | 91.91% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.40 | 91.75% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.40 | 91.51% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.38 | 93.44% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.41 | 91.58% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.39 | 91.54% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.39 | 91.78% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.39 | 91.83% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.40 | 91.93% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.39 | 91.70% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.39 | 91.86% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.39 | 92.01% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.40 | 92.40% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.40 | 92.78% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.40 | 92.66% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.40 | 92.92% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.40 | 92.72% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.40 | 92.54% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.40 | 92.54% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.40 | 92.70% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.40 | 92.33% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.39 | 92.59% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 0.4%red 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%Rare 99.3%best hit $131 (318.9x)