Farm Phases
A case on Skin.club (Farm cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$1.88
Advertised RTP
92.43%
EV $1.74 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.00%
96.1K openings, odds method
Variance
138.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/farm-phase, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · Sapphire$1.89$663351.0x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · SapphireSeneka$1.89$663351.0x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireNimble Falcon$1.85$657355.1x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · Sapphireᴇʀɪᴋ ツ$1.85$657355.1x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · Sapphire$1.85$628339.5x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · Sapphire𝔐𝔯𝔇$2.02$613303.2x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · Sapphire$2.05$611298.1x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · Immortal · Sapphire$2.05$610297.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $1.88 | 92.43% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $1.88 | 92.51% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.87 | 92.33% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.88 | 92.54% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.85 | 92.27% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.85 | 92.32% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.83 | 92.63% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.83 | 92.68% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.88 | 92.65% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.89 | 92.44% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $2.00 | 92.48% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $2.00 | 92.66% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $2.03 | 92.39% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $2.00 | 92.56% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $2.00 | 92.30% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $2.00 | 92.57% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $2.00 | 92.69% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $2.02 | 92.51% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $2.04 | 92.33% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $2.05 | 92.66% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.06 | 92.39% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.07 | 92.61% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.07 | 92.61% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.06 | 92.35% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.05 | 92.32% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $2.04 | 92.59% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.00 | 92.49% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.00 | 92.60% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | $2.00 | 92.61% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 04:45 UTC | $2.00 | 92.65% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedImmortal 0.3%Ancient 0.4%Rare 99.3%best hit $663 (351.0x)