Fever

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.50

Advertised RTP

92.24%

EV $1.38 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.91%

27.9K openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.71%±10.032,908 openings

7 days

90.83%±3.5623.8K openings

30 days

89.91%±3.2927.9K openings

since tracking started

89.91%±3.2927.9K openings

83.0%93.8%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,908	93.71%±10.0	+0.3σ	odds
7d	23.8K	90.83%±3.56	−0.9σ	odds
30d	27.9K	89.91%±3.29	−1.5σ	odds
All	27.9K	89.91%±3.29	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$123	1.8%	7	5.7	1.24×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 5,000	$103	1.5%	4	5.7	0.71×
★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 3,333	$65.68	1.4%	8	8.5	0.94×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,500	$62.59	1.8%	12	11.3	1.06×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,000	$48.81	1.8%	9	14.1	0.64×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,000	$44.85	1.6%	9	14.1	0.64×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,000	$44.58	1.6%	11	14.1	0.78×
★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 2,000	$42.84	1.5%	17	14.1	1.20×
★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 1,250	$41.83	2.4%	11	22.6	0.49×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$41.61	1.8%	22	17.0	1.30×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,000	$22.78	1.6%	37	28.3	1.31×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 625	$21.72	2.5%	30	45.2	0.66×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 370	$12.75	2.5%	80	76.3	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 270	$7.66	2.0%	105	104.6	1.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 250	$6.99	2.0%	115	113.1	1.02×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 182	$5.69	2.3%	142	155.5	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 63	$4.76	5.5%	550	452.3	1.22×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$4.75	6.9%	560	565.4	0.99×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$4.58	6.6%	558	565.4	0.99×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.95	4.3%	626	565.4	1.11×
Galil AR \| Control (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$2.84	5.1%	592	706.7	0.84×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.74	4.0%	549	565.4	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 40	$1.51	2.7%	701	706.7	0.99×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$1.14	2.9%	983	989.4	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.96	2.8%	1,115	1130.8	0.99×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.92	2.7%	1,158	1130.8	1.02×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$0.90	2.6%	1,295	1130.8	1.15×
Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$0.81	2.3%	1,173	1130.8	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$0.75	2.7%	1,394	1413.5	0.99×
MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.64	2.3%	1,429	1413.5	1.01×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.61	2.2%	1,213	1413.5	0.86×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.57	2.5%	1,939	1696.1	1.14×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.53	2.3%	1,645	1696.1	0.97×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.51	2.6%	1,942	1978.8	0.98×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.51	2.6%	1,815	1978.8	0.92×
Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.50	2.5%	1,949	1978.8	0.98×
MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.17	0.9%	2,251	2148.4	1.05×
MAG-7 \| Resupply (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.14	0.8%	2,213	2261.5	0.98×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/fever-case, 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$1.47$12484.48x4d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · golddjorgeporras$1.51$12381.66x2d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldNori Pizdy$1.49$12382.51x1d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldOnCrack$1.50$12381.69x3h

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldM4r1o$1.49$12282.19x1d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldPatrovPatrokovic$1.48$12282.72x8d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldDonkeyShot$1.49$12281.70x13h

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldAsuna$1.47$12282.75x8d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldNAVI K1mCh1$1.47$12182.53x6d

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$1.47$12182.48x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryDonkeyShot$1.50$4.753.17x18s

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryDonkeyShot$1.50$5.693.79x1m

P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.50$2.741.83x2m

MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueYraDm$1.50$0.180.12x2m

USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$1.50$0.920.61x2m

Galil AR | Control (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$1.50$2.901.93x2m

Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$1.50$0.490.33x2m

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)weapon · milspecLa Q$1.50$0.570.38x2m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryDonkeyShot$1.50$5.693.79x2m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkDonkeyShot$1.50$4.753.17x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.24%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$1.50	92.24%	38
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.50	92.20%	38
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.49	92.80%	38
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.50	92.38%	38
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.49	92.79%	38
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.49	92.70%	38
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.49	92.73%	38
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.49	92.22%	38
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.49	92.31%	38
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.50	92.51%	38
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.51	92.26%	38
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$1.50	92.75%	38
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.50	92.62%	38
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.50	92.61%	38
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.50	92.52%	38
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.50	92.69%	38
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.50	92.45%	38
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.49	92.78%	38
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.48	92.80%	38
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.47	92.51%	38
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.47	92.80%	38
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$1.47	92.49%	38
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.47	92.46%	38
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.47	92.37%	38
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.46	92.70%	38
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.46	92.65%	38
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.46	92.67%	38
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$1.46	92.75%	38
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$1.47	92.27%	38
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.47	92.31%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.1%sunny 0.0%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.1%uncommon 2.6%red 0.1%pink 4.9%Legendary 2.4%Mythical 19.5%restricted 2.0%blue 25.1%Rare 14.0%#4b69ff 4.0%#8847ff 5.0%milspec 6.0%violet 14.0%best hit $124 (84.48x)