Full Flash

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.36

Advertised RTP

92.69%

EV $0.33 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.71%

124K openings, odds method

Variance

16.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.92%±6.6314.3K openings

7 days

92.81%±2.39103K openings

30 days

92.71%±2.16124K openings

since tracking started

92.71%±2.16124K openings

87.5%94.8%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.3K	94.92%±6.63	+0.6σ	odds
7d	103K	92.81%±2.39	+0.5σ	odds
30d	124K	92.71%±2.16	+0.5σ	odds
All	124K	92.71%±2.16	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 124K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$110	3.3%	13	12.4	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,000	$27.09	4.1%	111	62.2	1.78×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$18.82	5.6%	78	124.5	0.63×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 667	$8.06	3.6%	184	186.7	0.99×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 526	$5.80	3.3%	259	236.5	1.10×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$4.69	2.8%	248	248.9	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$3.78	2.3%	240	248.9	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$2.39	2.9%	487	497.8	0.98×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$1.30	2.7%	1,005	871.2	1.15×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$0.82	2.0%	876	995.7	0.88×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.57	3.4%	2,499	2489.2	1.00×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.47	4.2%	5,936	3733.9	1.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.45	2.7%	3,263	2489.2	1.31×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.39	7.0%	10,121	7467.7	1.36×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.35	7.3%	10,486	8712.3	1.20×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	10.1%	$0.29	8.8%	11,761	12570.7	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.29	7.8%	10,422	11201.6	0.93×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.27	7.3%	9,173	11201.6	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.26	9.3%	11,247	14935.4	0.75×
Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	21.0%	$0.09	5.7%	23,584	26137.0	0.90×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	16.1%	$0.08	3.9%	22,469	20038.4	1.12×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/full-flash, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · rednagazzz$0.38$112293.7x8d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red2Girls1CupCamGuy$0.38$111292.1x8d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red$0.38$111291.9x7d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red$0.36$111307.9x21h

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · redBABYMYTYPE$0.38$111291.6x3d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · redMAKAKOO$0.38$111291.5x4d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · redbxgrapeak$0.36$111307.6x1d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · redSakál01$0.37$111299.0x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.36$0.290.81x1m

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$0.36$0.090.25x1m

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · RareGr | Darkmumy$0.36$0.080.22x1m

Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$0.36$0.290.81x2m

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$0.36$0.260.72x2m

SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalGr | Darkmumy$0.36$0.581.61x2m

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$0.36$0.090.25x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.36	92.69%	21
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.37	91.42%	21
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.37	91.57%	21
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.36	93.30%	21
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.37	91.49%	21
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.36	93.07%	21
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.37	91.95%	21
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.37	92.24%	21
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.39	91.87%	21
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.39	91.88%	21
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.39	91.54%	21
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.39	92.02%	21
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.39	92.54%	21
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.39	91.42%	21
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.38	93.14%	21
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.38	93.18%	21
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.38	92.59%	21
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.38	92.07%	21
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.38	92.02%	21
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.38	91.30%	21
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.38	91.37%	21
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.38	92.07%	21
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.38	92.18%	21
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.38	92.42%	21
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.39	92.61%	21
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.39	93.26%	21
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.39	93.33%	21
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.39	92.98%	21
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.39	91.39%	21
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.37	93.16%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%Mythical 2.1%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.4%#d32ee6 0.2%restricted 0.6%mil spec 4.5%#4b69ff 11.0%Rare 74.2%blue 7.0%best hit $112 (293.7x)