Harlequin

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.36

Advertised RTP

93.44%

EV $0.34 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.77%

124K openings, odds method

Variance

12.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 32

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.11%±6.4311.4K openings

7 days

92.80%±2.1995.4K openings

30 days

92.77%±1.91124K openings

since tracking started

92.77%±1.91124K openings

83.0%90.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11.4K	90.11%±6.43	−0.7σ	odds
7d	95.4K	92.80%±2.19	+0.5σ	odds
30d	124K	92.77%±1.91	+0.5σ	odds
All	124K	92.77%±1.91	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$23.42	7.0%	128	124.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 667	$14.16	6.3%	173	186.8	0.93×
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 250	$8.40	10.0%	526	498.2	1.06×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 250	$8.19	9.7%	492	498.2	0.99×
AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 154	$4.16	8.0%	824	809.5	1.02×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 143	$3.38	7.0%	860	871.8	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 143	$2.18	4.5%	865	871.8	0.99×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 125	$1.35	3.2%	1,005	996.4	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$1.00	3.0%	1,268	1245.4	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 91	$0.85	2.8%	1,345	1370.0	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.84	5.0%	2,950	2490.9	1.18×
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.75	4.5%	2,995	2490.9	1.20×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.62	5.5%	2,938	3736.3	0.79×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$0.38	4.0%	4,371	4359.0	1.00×
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$0.37	3.8%	4,277	4359.0	0.98×
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.19	2.3%	4,931	4981.8	0.99×
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.16	1.9%	5,134	4981.8	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 25	$0.14	1.7%	5,007	4981.8	1.01×
XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.13	2.7%	8,689	8718.1	1.00×
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 13	$0.09	2.1%	9,963	9963.5	1.00×
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 13	$0.04	1.0%	10,585	9963.5	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 11	$0.03	0.8%	10,584	11209.0	0.94×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 11	$0.03	0.8%	10,992	11209.0	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 13	$0.03	0.7%	11,067	9963.5	1.11×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 11	$0.03	0.8%	11,427	11209.0	1.02×
SG 553 \| Safari Print (Factory New)weapon · Common	10.0%	$0.03	0.9%	11,148	12454.4	0.90×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/harlequin-case, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.37$23.7764.24x4d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pinkMrJohnson907$0.37$23.6964.03x4d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.38$23.6962.34x4d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pinkPatrik$0.36$23.6665.72x4d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.37$23.5963.76x3d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.37$23.5963.76x4d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.37$23.5763.70x3d

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.37$23.5463.62x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$0.36$0.190.53x4m

Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.36$0.020.06x4m

MP9 | Bee-Tron (Factory New)weapon · CommonLemon$0.36$0.090.25x4m

Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.36$0.020.06x4m

XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.36$0.130.36x4m

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffLemon$0.36$0.381.06x4m

CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.36$0.030.08x4m

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$0.36$0.381.06x4m

SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$0.36$0.842.33x4m

FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New)weapon · Common辜桃奈加草$0.36$0.030.08x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.44%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.36	93.44%	26
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.36	92.91%	26
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.36	91.69%	26
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.36	92.53%	26
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.37	91.30%	26
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.36	93.23%	26
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.36	93.37%	26
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.37	91.27%	26
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.37	91.44%	26
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.36	93.45%	26
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.36	93.50%	26
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.37	91.73%	26
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.37	92.54%	26
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.37	91.97%	26
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.37	92.01%	26
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.37	91.95%	26
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.37	92.66%	26
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.37	92.26%	26
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.36	93.43%	26
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.37	91.48%	26
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.37	91.41%	26
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.37	91.62%	26
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.37	91.31%	26
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.36	93.23%	26
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.36	92.89%	26
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.37	91.39%	26
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.36	93.20%	26
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.36	93.25%	26
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.37	91.60%	26
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.37	91.58%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.1%#d32ce6 0.1%Mythical 0.8%restricted 0.7%#8847ff 0.7%#4b69ff 10.0%#5e98d9 9.1%milspec 3.0%Rare 3.5%Uncommon 11.0%Common 45.0%#b0c3d9 16.0%best hit $23.77 (64.24x)