It Moves
A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$1.42
Advertised RTP
92.36%
EV $1.31 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.51%
40.9K openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/it-moves, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $1.42 | 92.36% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $1.41 | 92.47% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.41 | 92.83% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.45 | 92.20% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.44 | 92.65% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.43 | 92.69% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.48 | 92.48% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.48 | 92.29% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.47 | 92.66% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.50 | 92.60% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.58 | 92.38% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $1.54 | 92.63% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $1.54 | 92.33% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.56 | 92.68% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $1.56 | 92.26% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $1.52 | 92.48% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $1.53 | 92.26% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $1.54 | 92.35% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $1.51 | 92.75% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $1.52 | 92.75% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.52 | 92.50% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $1.53 | 92.56% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $1.51 | 92.23% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $1.52 | 92.62% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.52 | 92.45% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.52 | 92.50% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.51 | 92.42% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.50 | 92.43% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.51 | 92.76% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.53 | 92.22% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 0.6%Mythical 26.9%Ancient 19.8%remarkable 0.5%extraordinary 0.5%red 2.7%Extraordinary 7.0%Rare 42.0%best hit —