kaeryka

A case on Skin.club (Creators cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$5.96

Advertised RTP

92.45%

EV $5.51 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.15%

58.4K openings, sample method

Variance

69.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 182

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

101.65%±19.756,984 openings

7 days

92.22%±7.1049.4K openings

30 days

91.15%±6.4958.4K openings

since tracking started

91.15%±6.4958.4K openings

81.0%101.5%122.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,984	101.65%±19.7	+0.9σ	odds
7d	49.4K	92.22%±7.10	—	sample
30d	58.4K	91.15%±6.49	—	sample
All	58.4K	91.15%±6.49	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$1,466	13.3%	25	29.2	0.86×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 500	$527	19.1%	119	116.9	1.02×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 333	$383	20.8%	170	175.4	0.97×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · Immortal · Phase 3	1 in 222	$305	24.9%	273	263.1	1.04×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$35.87	13.0%	1,150	1169.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.01	1.6%	8,472	5261.9	1.61×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	17.0%	$0.87	2.7%	6,756	9939.2	0.68×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	21.0%	$0.72	2.7%	12,369	12277.9	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Factory New)weapon · Common	25.0%	$0.26	1.2%	14,507	14616.5	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	25.0%	$0.13	0.6%	14,625	14616.5	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/kaeryka-case, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2$6.18$1,656267.9x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2$6.16$1,630264.6x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2FataleDemise5$6.23$1,630261.6x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2$6.16$1,629264.5x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2Wikingar$6.16$1,629264.5x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2$5.96$1,466245.9x4h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2$5.98$1,459243.9x8h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · Immortal · Phase 2$5.98$1,453242.9x9h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.93$1.000.17x2m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$5.93$0.720.12x2m

R8 Revolver | Inlay (Factory New)weapon · Common$5.93$0.260.04x2m

R8 Revolver | Inlay (Factory New)weapon · Commonroxx$5.93$0.260.04x2m

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3roxx$5.96$30451.04x5m

R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3$5.95$0.870.15x6m

R8 Revolver | Inlay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$5.95$0.130.02x6m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$5.95$0.720.12x6m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalBORZ$5.95$0.720.12x6m

R8 Revolver | Inlay (Factory New)weapon · Common$5.95$0.260.04x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$5.96	92.45%	10
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$6.02	92.51%	10
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$6.08	92.54%	10
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$6.09	92.48%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 17.0%Immortal 1.0%covert 2.0%restricted 9.0%Mythical 21.0%Common 50.0%best hit $1,656 (267.9x)