KAWAII

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.35

Advertised RTP

92.64%

EV $0.32 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.61%

97.7K openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.58%±3.2910.5K openings

7 days

92.92%±1.2772.3K openings

30 days

92.61%±1.0897.7K openings

since tracking started

92.61%±1.0897.7K openings

90.5%94.5%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10.5K	94.58%±3.29	+2.0σ	odds
7d	72.3K	92.92%±1.27	+1.4σ	odds
30d	97.7K	92.61%±1.08	+1.0σ	odds
All	97.7K	92.61%±1.08	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Great Wave (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 333	$6.92	6.4%	306	294.3	1.04×
Sticker \| V For Victory (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 250	$5.38	6.6%	407	392.4	1.04×
Sticker \| Unicorn (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 200	$2.33	3.6%	731	490.5	1.49×
Sticker \| Ivette (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 100	$2.19	6.8%	730	980.9	0.74×
Sticker \| Sherry (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 200	$1.79	2.8%	481	490.5	0.98×
Sticker \| Silent Ninja (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 111	$1.43	4.0%	895	882.8	1.01×
Sticker \| Cyber Romanov (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.98	3.0%	1,725	980.9	1.76×
Sticker \| Kawaii Killer Terroriststicker · Rare	1 in 200	$0.92	1.4%	727	490.5	1.48×
Sticker \| Free Hugssticker · Rare	1 in 77	$0.88	3.5%	1,940	1275.2	1.52×
Sticker \| Kawaii Killer CTsticker · Rare	1 in 33	$0.88	8.1%	1,252	2942.7	0.43×
Sticker \| Bombsquad (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 100	$0.58	1.8%	945	980.9	0.96×
Sticker \| Merietta (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.53	1.6%	946	980.9	0.96×
Sticker \| Martha (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.42	6.5%	5,258	4904.6	1.07×
Sticker \| Sherrysticker · Rare	1 in 33	$0.31	2.9%	3,941	2942.7	1.34×
Sticker \| Toy Tigersticker · Rare	1 in 11	$0.30	8.3%	4,974	8828.2	0.56×
Sticker \| Wingsuit (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 33	$0.24	2.2%	3,854	2942.7	1.31×
Sticker \| Ivettesticker · Rare	1 in 38	$0.24	1.9%	6,954	2550.4	2.73×
Sticker \| Noodlessticker · Rare	1 in 13	$0.23	5.7%	6,219	7847.3	0.79×
Sticker \| Defuse It (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.20	4.3%	7,846	6866.4	1.14×
Sticker \| Meriettasticker · Rare	12.0%	$0.15	5.6%	7,497	11770.9	0.64×
Sticker \| Baby Cerberussticker · Rare	1 in 20	$0.15	2.3%	7,420	4904.6	1.51×
Sticker \| Hotpotsticker · Rare	12.0%	$0.14	5.2%	10,384	11770.9	0.88×
Sticker \| Baby Fire Serpentsticker · Rare	1 in 13	$0.10	2.5%	8,343	7847.3	1.06×
Sticker \| Last Vancesticker · Rare	1 in 17	$0.07	1.3%	7,442	5885.5	1.26×
Sticker \| Marthasticker · Rare	1 in 13	$0.07	1.7%	6,874	7847.3	0.88×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/kawaii, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Ivette (Holo)sticker · MythicalHiroNori$0.35$2.156.14x4m

Sticker | Toy Tigersticker · Rare$0.35$0.300.86x5m

Sticker | Baby Fire Serpentsticker · RareHiroNori$0.35$0.100.29x5m

Sticker | Last Vancesticker · Rare$0.35$0.070.20x5m

Sticker | Martha (Holo)sticker · MythicalHiroNori$0.35$0.421.20x5m

Sticker | Ivette (Holo)sticker · Mythical$0.35$2.156.14x5m

Sticker | Kawaii Killer CTsticker · RareHiroNori$0.35$0.872.49x5m

Sticker | Ivettesticker · Rare$0.35$0.240.69x7m

Sticker | Baby Fire Serpentsticker · Rareciuma6ness$0.35$0.100.29x7m

Sticker | Marthasticker · Rare$0.35$0.040.11x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.64%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.35	92.64%	25
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.35	93.33%	25
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.34	91.18%	25
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.34	91.40%	25
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.34	91.30%	25
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.34	91.38%	25
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.34	91.69%	25
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.35	91.42%	25
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.34	93.18%	25
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.35	92.49%	25
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.35	92.54%	25
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.35	93.14%	25
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.35	91.83%	25
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.35	92.27%	25
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.35	92.50%	25
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.35	92.23%	25
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.35	91.63%	25
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.34	93.46%	25
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.35	91.58%	25
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.35	91.47%	25
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.35	93.15%	25
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.36	91.35%	25
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.35	93.17%	25
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.36	91.32%	25
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.36	93.41%	25
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.35	93.37%	25
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.35	92.75%	25
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.36	92.38%	25
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.34	93.27%	25
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.35	92.85%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.7%Mythical 19.0%Legendary 1.9%Rare 78.4%best hit —