Level 3
A case on Skin.club (daily cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$0.05
Advertised RTP
74.56%
EV $0.04 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
50.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,381 | $17.36 | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P250 | Plum Netting (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| XM1014 | Canvas Cloud (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)weapon · Common | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| SCAR-20 | Zinc (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/lvl-3, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.05 | 74.56% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.05 | 74.04% | 3 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.05 | 74.82% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%consumer 30.0%#b0c3d9 30.0%Uncommon 10.0%light blue 10.0%Common 10.0%industrial 10.0%