Level 40
A case on Skin.club (daily cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$0.25
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $0.22 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
505.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,176
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,176 | $193 | 72.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight | 16.0% | $0.12 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 20.8% | $0.11 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New)weapon · Common | 63.1% | $0.03 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/lvl-40, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.25 | 89.97% | 4 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.25 | 89.97% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%blueLight 16.0%industrial 20.8%Common 63.1%