M4A1-S

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$2.60

Advertised RTP

92.66%

EV $2.41 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.84%

106K openings, odds method

Variance

9.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.32%±4.8915K openings

7 days

90.95%±2.1586.9K openings

30 days

90.84%±1.96106K openings

since tracking started

90.84%±1.96106K openings

87.0%92.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	15K	92.32%±4.89	−0.0σ	odds
7d	86.9K	90.95%±2.15	−1.4σ	odds
30d	106K	90.84%±1.96	−1.7σ	odds
All	106K	90.84%±1.96	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$190	0.8%	22	10.6	2.07×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$171	0.7%	7	10.6	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$155	0.6%	5	10.6	0.47×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$122	1.0%	42	21.2	1.98×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,333	$121	1.5%	15	31.9	0.47×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$119	2.0%	61	42.5	1.44×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$111	1.8%	241	42.5	5.67×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$86.57	2.2%	66	63.7	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,250	$74.21	2.5%	38	85.0	0.45×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 1,250	$71.75	2.4%	58	85.0	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$67.55	2.8%	84	106.2	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$59.23	2.5%	160	106.2	1.51×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$38.19	1.6%	115	106.2	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 588	$37.39	2.6%	120	180.6	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$32.04	4.0%	445	318.7	1.40×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$28.03	3.5%	324	318.7	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$21.50	4.5%	588	531.2	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.85	3.9%	525	531.2	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$14.17	2.9%	966	531.2	1.82×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 182	$11.36	2.6%	927	584.3	1.59×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$10.07	4.2%	720	1062.4	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$10.06	4.2%	652	1062.4	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$7.59	3.2%	3,239	1062.4	3.05×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 100	$6.37	2.6%	3,431	1062.4	3.23×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$6.34	2.6%	1,036	1062.4	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$5.19	8.6%	1,520	4249.5	0.36×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$5.10	8.5%	1,881	4249.5	0.44×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 17	$1.96	4.9%	6,348	6374.2	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 18	$1.93	4.4%	6,065	5843.0	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.05	3.1%	7,414	7436.6	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$0.62	2.1%	8,515	8499.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$0.49	1.6%	8,437	8499.0	0.99×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.27	1.0%	12,748	9561.3	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	10.0%	$0.25	1.0%	11,222	10623.7	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	16.0%	$0.14	0.9%	14,808	16997.9	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	14.0%	$0.13	0.8%	13,392	14873.2	0.90×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/m4a1s, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertfat ugly pig$2.60$18972.87x7h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertTriage Moneghetti$2.61$18972.57x1h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$2.60$18972.58x10h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertAkiwo 𝒫𝒲$3.12$18960.46x2d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$2.59$18872.46x1d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert#Moni™$2.59$18772.20x1d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertTTHD$3.12$18759.91x2d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.08$18359.54x4d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertByLA |$3.06$18159.18x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$2.60$0.140.05x2m

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$2.60$32.0512.33x2m

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$2.60$1.960.75x2m

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKrosshair$2.60$0.260.10x2m

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$2.60$0.140.05x2m

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$2.60$0.260.10x2m

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKrosshair$2.60$0.140.05x2m

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$2.60$32.0512.33x2m

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$2.60$38.2014.69x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$2.60	92.66%	36
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$2.60	92.38%	36
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$2.59	92.43%	36
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.58	92.52%	36
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.59	92.43%	36
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.59	92.65%	36
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.58	92.61%	36
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$2.59	92.44%	36
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$3.10	92.57%	36
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$3.12	92.38%	36
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$3.12	92.45%	36
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$3.12	92.48%	36
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$3.12	92.53%	36
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$3.12	92.41%	36
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$3.11	92.48%	36
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$3.11	92.53%	36
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$3.10	92.56%	36
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$3.09	92.36%	36
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$3.07	92.58%	36
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$3.07	92.55%	36
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$3.06	92.52%	36
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.07	92.59%	36
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.07	92.49%	36
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.07	92.47%	36
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.07	92.50%	36
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.06	92.56%	36
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$3.06	92.44%	36
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$3.05	92.48%	36
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.03	92.59%	36
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.04	92.37%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%classified 2.2%Legendary 0.0%industrial 0.1%rare 0.1%restricted 8.3%pink 1.0%mil spec 4.5%Mythical 17.0%Rare 26.0%Classified 1.0%violet 4.0%Uncommon 30.0%#4b69ff 5.5%best hit $189 (72.87x)