M4A4

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

92.62%

EV $1.29 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.31%

85.2K openings, odds method

Variance

24.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 63

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.03%±10.149,260 openings

7 days

92.15%±3.6270.9K openings

30 days

92.31%±3.3085.2K openings

since tracking started

92.31%±3.3085.2K openings

82.0%93.0%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9,260	93.03%±10.1	+0.1σ	odds
7d	70.9K	92.15%±3.62	−0.2σ	odds
30d	85.2K	92.31%±3.30	−0.1σ	odds
All	85.2K	92.31%±3.30	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$267	2.1%	8	8.5	0.94×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$264	2.0%	8	8.5	0.94×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$127	1.0%	3	8.5	0.35×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$85.86	2.7%	64	34.1	1.88×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$82.69	3.9%	53	51.1	1.04×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$82.18	3.8%	88	51.1	1.72×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$81.20	3.8%	61	51.1	1.19×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,111	$63.25	4.4%	67	76.7	0.87×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$48.91	3.4%	72	76.7	0.94×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$46.40	3.2%	69	76.7	0.90×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,111	$38.36	2.7%	62	76.7	0.81×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,111	$31.76	2.2%	92	76.7	1.20×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$30.87	2.4%	73	85.2	0.86×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$30.03	2.3%	82	85.2	0.96×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$29.54	2.3%	80	85.2	0.94×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$27.65	2.4%	64	93.7	0.68×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$23.38	2.7%	171	127.8	1.34×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$19.68	2.3%	149	127.8	1.17×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 556	$18.66	2.6%	168	153.3	1.10×
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 500	$17.13	2.7%	153	170.4	0.90×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 417	$12.47	2.3%	153	204.5	0.75×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 417	$11.12	2.1%	225	204.5	1.10×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 370	$10.34	2.2%	211	230.0	0.92×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$8.57	3.3%	422	426.0	0.99×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$7.78	3.6%	424	511.2	0.83×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 200	$7.14	2.8%	496	426.0	1.16×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$5.42	2.5%	539	511.2	1.05×
M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 152	$4.48	2.3%	777	562.3	1.38×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$4.12	3.2%	573	851.9	0.67×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$3.84	3.0%	1,472	851.9	1.73×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$3.04	3.5%	1,026	1277.9	0.80×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.32	2.1%	3,275	1703.9	1.92×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$0.63	2.2%	1,938	3833.7	0.51×
M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.55	2.6%	6,403	5111.6	1.25×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.37	2.3%	5,546	6815.5	0.81×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.20	1.2%	7,428	6815.5	1.09×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.16	1.1%	9,523	7667.5	1.24×
M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	12.0%	$0.11	1.0%	7,569	10223.3	0.74×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	12.0%	$0.07	0.7%	12,763	10223.3	1.25×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	12.0%	$0.06	0.6%	10,491	10223.3	1.03×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	17.6%	$0.04	0.5%	12,353	14994.1	0.82×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/m4a4, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$1.54$298193.8x8d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$1.53$292191.0x7d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientGHOUST$1.52$291191.7x6d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancientxen0N$1.52$291191.7x6d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancientmrporkchop25$1.53$290189.4x6d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientPaavel$1.52$285187.6x5d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientTrleeee$1.40$271193.7x1d

M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$1.40$271193.4x1d

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1.52$268176.5x4d

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1.52$268176.1x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specLink360KRB$1.39$1.330.96x1m

M4A4 | Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareHope$1.39$0.200.14x1m

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.39$0.160.12x1m

M4A4 | Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.39$0.200.14x1m

M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$1.39$0.110.08x1m

M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violetsnackbox_-$1.39$0.370.27x1m

M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$1.39$4.122.96x1m

M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$1.39$0.070.05x1m

M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$1.39$0.040.03x1m

M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommonsnackbox_-$1.39$0.110.08x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.62%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$1.39	92.62%	41
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$1.39	92.44%	41
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.39	92.54%	41
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.39	92.81%	41
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.40	92.38%	41
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.40	92.66%	41
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.41	92.20%	41
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.41	92.33%	41
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.41	92.36%	41
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.41	92.67%	41
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.52	92.62%	41
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.52	92.63%	41
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.53	92.28%	41
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.52	92.75%	41
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.52	92.67%	41
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.52	92.53%	41
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.52	92.73%	41
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.52	92.59%	41
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.52	92.58%	41
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.52	92.28%	41
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.52	92.53%	41
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$1.52	92.45%	41
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.52	92.62%	41
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.52	92.57%	41
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.53	92.44%	41
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.53	92.29%	41
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.52	92.69%	41
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$1.52	92.78%	41
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$1.53	92.28%	41
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.52	92.59%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%Ancient 0.3%classified 0.4%red 0.1%mil spec 2.8%Legendary 1.1%violet 8.2%Rare 23.2%Mythical 0.7%industrial 1.7%Uncommon 53.9%restricted 2.7%#8847ff 4.5%best hit $298 (193.8x)