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Major Autographs

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price
$1.24
Advertised RTP
92.56%
EV $1.15 from 84 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.72%
21.5K openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.60%±6.284,058 openings
7 days
92.61%±2.2817.6K openings
30 days
92.72%±1.8721.5K openings
since tracking started
92.72%±1.8721.5K openings
83.5%90.5%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4,05890.60%±6.28−0.7σodds
7d17.6K92.61%±2.28−0.6σodds
30d21.5K92.72%±1.87−0.4σodds
All21.5K92.72%±1.87−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$65.012.8%810.80.74×
Sticker | ZywOo (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$57.362.5%1610.81.49×
Sticker | JamYoung (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$43.561.9%1010.80.93×
Sticker | m0NESY (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 2,000$21.140.9%810.80.74×
Sticker | donk (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 2,000$18.270.8%1210.81.11×
Sticker | C4LLM3SU3 (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$17.750.8%1510.81.39×
Sticker | zweih (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$13.730.6%3410.83.16×
Sticker | TjP (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$12.630.6%2710.82.51×
Sticker | iM (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$11.990.5%1810.81.67×
Sticker | soulfly (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 2,000$11.010.5%910.80.84×
Sticker | magixx (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 2,000$8.840.4%1310.81.21×
Sticker | ZywOo (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 1,000$8.050.7%3821.51.76×
Sticker | ultimate (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 1,000$7.370.6%2821.51.30×
Sticker | malbsMd (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient1 in 500$5.871.0%5843.11.35×
Sticker | JamYoung (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 500$5.821.0%3843.10.88×
Sticker | molodoy (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 500$5.791.0%5243.11.21×
Sticker | JDC (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 500$5.461.0%4343.11.00×
Sticker | tN1R (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 500$4.890.9%78243.118.16×
Sticker | YEKINDAR (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$4.261.1%1,01864.615.76×
Sticker | dem0n (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$4.091.1%94964.614.69×
Sticker | w0nderful (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$3.751.0%4964.60.76×
Sticker | Liazz (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$3.711.0%5964.60.91×
Sticker | huNter- (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$3.641.0%8164.61.25×
Sticker | aliStair (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$3.460.9%10164.61.56×
Sticker | b1t (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 250$3.301.2%10286.11.18×
Sticker | gafolo (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythical1 in 333$3.300.9%11264.61.73×
Sticker | Gizmy (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 250$3.101.1%18586.12.15×
Sticker | Jame (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$3.091.3%90107.60.84×
Sticker | Sonic (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$2.571.1%112107.61.04×
Sticker | iM (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$2.411.0%128107.61.19×
Sticker | ryu (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$2.371.0%119107.61.11×
Sticker | ropz (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythical1 in 200$2.191.0%161107.61.50×
Sticker | Moseyuh (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$2.161.1%158129.21.22×
Sticker | max (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$2.150.9%152107.61.41×
Sticker | HooXi (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$2.131.1%126129.20.98×
Sticker | Lake (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$2.131.1%126129.20.98×
Sticker | Magnojez (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$2.071.1%124129.20.96×
Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$2.011.2%173150.71.15×
Sticker | Techno4K (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$2.001.2%172150.71.14×
Sticker | slaxz- (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.971.2%252150.71.67×
Sticker | arT (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.911.2%186150.71.23×
Sticker | dumau (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.891.2%169150.71.12×
Sticker | NAF (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.891.2%175150.71.16×
Sticker | story (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.871.1%145150.70.96×
Sticker | vexite (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.791.1%226150.71.50×
Sticker | xiELO (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.721.0%135150.70.90×
Sticker | malbsMd (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$1.701.0%219150.71.45×
Sticker | Starry (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.701.2%190172.21.10×
Sticker | yxngstxr (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.611.1%210172.21.22×
Sticker | Zero (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythical1 in 125$1.551.1%284172.21.65×
Sticker | S1ren (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.531.1%145172.20.84×
Sticker | lauNX (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.521.1%294172.21.71×
Sticker | cobra (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.491.0%185172.21.07×
Sticker | latto (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.491.0%214172.21.24×
Sticker | luken (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 125$1.451.0%147172.20.85×
Sticker | ultimate (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.431.1%156193.80.81×
Sticker | yuurih (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.391.1%283193.81.46×
Sticker | Brollan (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.351.1%220193.81.14×
Sticker | HEN1 (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.351.1%197193.81.02×
Sticker | rdnzao (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.351.1%183193.80.94×
Sticker | gafolo (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.331.0%193193.81.00×
Sticker | xertioN (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.291.0%357193.81.84×
Sticker | zorte (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.281.0%200193.81.03×
Sticker | MATYS (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$1.261.0%206193.81.06×
Sticker | zweih (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.221.1%262215.31.22×
Sticker | westmelon (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.221.1%238215.31.11×
Sticker | siuhy (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.161.0%279215.31.30×
Sticker | Wicadia (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.151.0%279215.31.30×
Sticker | nettik (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.141.0%219215.31.02×
Sticker | npl (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.121.0%277215.31.29×
Sticker | Jimpphat (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.090.9%178215.30.83×
Sticker | BELCHONOKK (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.070.9%219215.31.02×
Sticker | insani (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$1.070.9%241215.31.12×
Sticker | faveN (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 100$0.950.8%221215.31.03×
Sticker | n1ssim (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 67$0.941.2%304322.90.94×
Sticker | susp (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 67$0.941.2%273322.90.85×
Sticker | nilo (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 50$0.861.5%318430.60.74×
Sticker | saadzin (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 59$0.831.2%480366.01.31×
Sticker | NQZ (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 57$0.821.3%287376.80.76×
Sticker | esenthial (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 17$0.804.2%8591291.80.66×
Sticker | kensizor (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 17$0.743.9%7941291.80.61×
Sticker | Chr1zN (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 50$0.721.3%823430.61.91×
Sticker | LNZ (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 17$0.723.8%3581291.80.28×
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare30.0%$0.112.9%3,9446459.00.61×
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/major-autographs, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · AncientAstral Cougar$1.25$69.0455.23x
Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient✪४Devil☯$1.24$68.7255.42x
Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · Ancient$1.24$68.7255.42x
Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · AncientHerzog$1.24$68.7255.42x
Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · AncientScreaMy$1.24$67.3554.31x
Sticker | donk (Gold) | Cologne 2026sticker · AncientManny$1.24$66.6853.77x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare$1.23$0.110.09x
Sticker | LNZ (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary$1.23$0.720.59x
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare$1.23$0.110.09x
Sticker | Jimpphat (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary꞊۱$1.23$1.070.87x
Sticker | saadzin (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary$1.23$0.950.77x
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare$1.23$0.110.09x
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare$1.23$0.110.09x
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare☣黑龙☣$1.23$0.110.09x
Sticker | LNZ (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary$1.23$0.720.59x
Sticker | SunPayus | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare$1.23$0.110.09x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.56%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
12 Nov, 08:56 UTC$1.2492.56%84
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC$1.2392.72%84
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC$1.2492.81%84
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC$1.2492.78%84
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC$1.2492.55%84
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC$1.2492.24%84
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$1.2492.43%84
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.2492.39%84
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.2492.30%84
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.2492.52%84
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.2492.42%84
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC$1.2592.16%84
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$3.0192.61%84
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC$3.0192.40%84
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC$3.0192.41%84
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$2.9992.57%84
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC$3.0192.56%84
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC$2.8692.37%84
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC$2.9192.63%84
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC$2.9592.59%84
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC$3.0092.51%84
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC$3.0192.65%84
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC$2.8692.36%84
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC$2.8492.39%84
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC$2.6892.54%84
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC$2.6892.40%84
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$2.6892.41%84
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.6992.63%84
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.6992.66%84
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$2.7192.42%84
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.7%Legendary 67.7%Mythical 1.6%Rare 30.0%best hit $69.04 (55.23x)