Major Legends

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price
$1.56
Advertised RTP
92.73%
EV $1.45 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.01%
37.8K openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
101.17%±8.694,483 openings
7 days
92.56%±3.5229.3K openings
30 days
93.01%±3.1237.8K openings
since tracking started
93.01%±3.1237.8K openings
88.5%99.5%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4,483101.17%±8.69+2.0σodds
7d29.3K92.56%±3.52+0.1σodds
30d37.8K93.01%±3.12+0.4σodds
All37.8K93.01%±3.12+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Falcons (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 667$63.536.6%9056.81.59×
Sticker | THUNDERdOWNUNDER (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 500$44.156.1%10575.71.39×
Sticker | Vitality (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 400$32.275.6%8994.60.94×
Sticker | FlyQuest (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 333$19.374.0%184113.51.62×
Sticker | GamerLegion (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 250$17.344.8%149151.30.98×
Sticker | Astralis (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$15.565.4%139189.20.73×
Sticker | FUT (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$14.805.1%185189.20.98×
Sticker | Aurora (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 200$12.774.4%221189.21.17×
Sticker | BIG (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$12.475.2%205227.00.90×
Sticker | Lynn Vision (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$11.454.7%197227.00.87×
Sticker | Monte (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$10.854.5%218227.00.96×
Sticker | PARIVISION (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 167$8.683.6%213227.00.94×
Sticker | Legacy (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 154$7.333.3%274245.91.11×
Sticker | Falcons (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythical1 in 154$7.193.2%305245.91.24×
Sticker | HEROIC (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$7.033.4%237264.90.89×
Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 143$6.663.2%245264.90.93×
Sticker | MIBR (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary1 in 111$6.163.8%344340.51.01×
Sticker | FUT (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythical1 in 100$1.721.2%377378.41.00×
Sticker | THUNDERdOWNUNDER | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare1 in 100$1.641.1%372378.40.98×
Sticker | Team Liquid | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare1 in 100$0.600.4%277378.40.73×
Sticker | Natus Vincere | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare41.4%$0.3911.2%4,39215664.10.28×
Sticker | MOUZ | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare1 in 56$0.320.4%13,757681.020.20×
Sticker | Lynn Vision | Cologne 2026sticker · Rare45.0%$0.288.7%15,26117026.20.90×
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/majors-legend, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.73%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
12 Nov, 08:56 UTC$1.5692.73%23
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC$1.5792.63%23
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC$1.5992.34%23
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC$1.5992.61%23
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC$1.6792.51%23
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC$1.6192.39%23
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$1.6392.37%23
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.6092.24%23
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.6392.67%23
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.6092.37%23
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.5592.54%23
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC$1.5492.42%23
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$1.7392.58%23
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC$1.7592.71%23
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC$1.7692.74%23
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$1.7492.46%23
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC$1.7792.50%23
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC$1.7792.35%23
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC$1.7792.72%23
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC$1.7392.31%23
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC$1.7592.38%23
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC$1.8192.34%23
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC$1.7892.44%23
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC$1.7992.28%23
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC$1.8292.36%23
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC$1.7592.39%23
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.7192.43%23
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.7092.70%23
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.6892.44%23
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.7192.28%23
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 8.2%Mythical 1.7%Rare 90.2%best hit —