Meme Party

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

92.90%

EV $0.46 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.15%

58.5K openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.57%±4.096,614 openings

7 days

92.91%±1.6044.3K openings

30 days

92.15%±1.4258.5K openings

since tracking started

92.15%±1.4258.5K openings

85.0%90.0%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,614	89.57%±4.09	−1.4σ	odds
7d	44.3K	92.91%±1.60	+0.4σ	odds
30d	58.5K	92.15%±1.42	−0.6σ	odds
All	58.5K	92.15%±1.42	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 1,000	$11.01	2.4%	147	58.6	2.51×
Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary	1 in 333	$9.52	6.1%	161	175.9	0.92×
Sticker \| Kawaii T (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$6.68	7.2%	215	293.2	0.73×
Sticker \| Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	1 in 200	$5.37	5.8%	282	293.2	0.96×
Sticker \| Approaching Site (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 143	$2.00	3.0%	400	410.4	0.97×
Sticker \| Bomb Dogesticker · blue	1 in 125	$1.76	3.0%	461	469.1	0.98×
Sticker \| Hidden Hero (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 111	$1.24	2.4%	788	527.7	1.49×
Sticker \| Kawaii Killer CTsticker · Rare	1 in 56	$0.88	3.4%	1,353	1055.4	1.28×
Sticker \| Pros Don't Fakesticker · Rare	1 in 45	$0.84	4.0%	1,818	1289.9	1.41×
Sticker \| T On Catsticker · Rare	1 in 43	$0.76	3.8%	1,351	1348.5	1.00×
Sticker \| Thug Lifesticker · Rare	1 in 43	$0.70	3.5%	1,331	1348.5	0.99×
Sticker \| Boost (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 43	$0.67	3.3%	1,460	1348.5	1.08×
Sticker \| Mister Chiefsticker · Rare	1 in 40	$0.63	3.4%	1,099	1465.8	0.75×
Sticker \| Zeusception (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.40	5.5%	4,038	3752.4	1.08×
Sticker \| This Is Fine (CT)sticker · high	1 in 25	$0.32	2.8%	5,357	2345.3	2.28×
Sticker \| Poorly Drawn IDFsticker · Rare	1 in 14	$0.31	4.7%	3,022	4104.2	0.74×
Sticker \| Poorly Drawn FBIsticker · Rare	1 in 14	$0.30	4.5%	3,640	4104.2	0.89×
Sticker \| Mind Games (Holo)sticker · Mythical	10.7%	$0.29	6.7%	5,496	6273.6	0.88×
Sticker \| Door Stuck (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 11	$0.26	5.0%	4,972	5276.9	0.94×
Sticker \| This Is Fine (T)sticker · Rare	1 in 11	$0.26	5.0%	5,317	5276.9	1.01×
Sticker \| Zeusedsticker · Rare	10.0%	$0.25	5.4%	4,877	5863.2	0.83×
Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Bloody Darrylsticker · Rare	10.7%	$0.22	5.1%	5,603	6273.6	0.89×
Sticker \| Green's Problemsticker · Rare	1 in 11	$0.21	4.1%	5,444	5276.9	1.03×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/meme-party, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | This Is Fine (T)sticker · Rare$0.50$0.260.52x4m

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare$0.50$0.210.42x4m

Sticker | Zeusception (Holo)sticker · MythicalRajin Bin Malas$0.50$0.400.80x4m

Sticker | T On Catsticker · Rare$0.50$0.761.52x4m

Sticker | This Is Fine (T)sticker · Rare$0.50$0.260.52x4m

Sticker | Zeusedsticker · RareRajin Bin Malas$0.50$0.250.50x4m

Sticker | Poorly Drawn Bloody Darrylsticker · Rare$0.50$0.220.44x4m

Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil)sticker · Legendary$0.50$0.260.52x4m

Sticker | Poorly Drawn Bloody Darrylsticker · RareRajin Bin Malas$0.50$0.220.44x4m

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare$0.50$0.210.42x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.50	92.90%	23
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.51	91.86%	23
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.50	93.32%	23
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.51	92.55%	23
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.50	93.13%	23
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.50	93.41%	23
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.51	92.02%	23
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.51	92.36%	23
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.51	91.98%	23
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.51	92.33%	23
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.52	92.52%	23
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.54	93.32%	23
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.52	92.82%	23
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.52	92.75%	23
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.53	92.26%	23
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.53	92.37%	23
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.53	92.22%	23
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.54	91.88%	23
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.54	92.89%	23
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.54	92.74%	23
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.54	92.99%	23
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.53	92.94%	23
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.53	93.05%	23
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.53	91.85%	23
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.55	91.91%	23
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.54	92.55%	23
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.55	92.31%	23
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.55	91.93%	23
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.54	92.68%	23
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.53	92.81%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedexotic 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%remarkable 0.5%#8847ff 0.5%Legendary 10.6%blue 0.8%Rare 63.8%Mythical 19.4%high 4.0%best hit —