Mil-Spec

A case on Skin.club (By quality), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.42

Advertised RTP

92.45%

EV $0.39 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.92%

168K openings, odds method

Variance

4.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.78%±3.3914.7K openings

7 days

91.87%±1.12135K openings

30 days

91.92%±1.00168K openings

since tracking started

91.92%±1.00168K openings

85.5%89.8%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.7K	89.78%±3.39	−1.2σ	odds
7d	135K	91.87%±1.12	−0.8σ	odds
30d	168K	91.92%±1.00	−0.8σ	odds
All	168K	91.92%±1.00	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$44.90	1.2%	21	16.9	1.24×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$31.83	0.8%	15	16.9	0.89×
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$21.34	0.5%	13	16.9	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$19.88	0.5%	12	16.9	0.71×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$18.81	0.5%	26	16.9	1.54×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$18.08	0.5%	16	16.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$17.50	0.5%	24	16.9	1.42×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$17.45	0.4%	21	16.9	1.24×
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 10,000	$16.60	0.4%	17	16.9	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$16.58	0.4%	14	16.9	0.83×
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$14.76	0.4%	27	16.9	1.60×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10,000	$12.56	0.3%	11	16.9	0.65×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$12.26	0.3%	20	16.9	1.19×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$11.68	0.3%	18	16.9	1.07×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$8.96	0.2%	28	16.9	1.66×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 10,000	$8.54	0.2%	19	16.9	1.13×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,000	$8.29	0.4%	30	33.7	0.89×
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 5,000	$7.24	0.4%	36	33.7	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,000	$6.37	0.3%	28	33.7	0.83×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$6.35	0.3%	36	33.7	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$6.32	0.3%	38	33.7	1.13×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$5.92	0.3%	25	33.7	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$5.19	0.3%	47	33.7	1.39×
Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,333	$4.99	0.4%	63	50.6	1.24×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,333	$4.83	0.4%	43	50.6	0.85×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,333	$4.47	0.3%	36	50.6	0.71×
SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,333	$4.39	0.3%	29	50.6	0.57×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,333	$4.32	0.3%	30	50.6	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,333	$4.30	0.3%	42	50.6	0.83×
Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 3,333	$4.01	0.3%	47	50.6	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,333	$3.30	0.3%	60	50.6	1.19×
P2000 \| Red FragCam (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$3.15	0.3%	71	67.5	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,500	$3.09	0.3%	71	67.5	1.05×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$3.07	0.3%	67	67.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$2.89	0.3%	58	67.5	0.86×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$2.84	0.3%	69	67.5	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Balance (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$2.62	0.3%	55	67.5	0.81×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$2.45	0.3%	80	67.5	1.19×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$2.08	0.2%	61	67.5	0.90×
XM1014 \| Red Python (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,500	$2.06	0.2%	60	67.5	0.89×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$1.89	0.2%	81	67.5	1.20×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$1.71	0.2%	80	84.4	0.95×
P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,000	$1.68	0.2%	73	84.4	0.87×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$1.53	0.2%	76	84.4	0.90×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,000	$1.51	0.2%	76	84.4	0.90×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 2,000	$1.41	0.2%	84	84.4	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$1.35	0.2%	84	84.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 2,000	$1.35	0.2%	85	84.4	1.01×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,667	$1.30	0.2%	87	101.2	0.86×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,667	$1.20	0.2%	121	101.2	1.20×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,667	$1.18	0.2%	125	101.2	1.23×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,667	$1.14	0.2%	155	101.2	1.53×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,667	$1.14	0.2%	96	101.2	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$1.12	0.3%	100	168.7	0.59×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,667	$1.11	0.2%	158	101.2	1.56×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,667	$1.10	0.2%	119	101.2	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,000	$1.08	0.3%	117	168.7	0.69×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$1.05	0.3%	168	168.7	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.98	0.3%	535	168.7	3.17×
USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$0.95	0.2%	177	168.7	1.05×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.89	0.2%	114	168.7	0.68×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.89	0.2%	173	168.7	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.84	0.2%	147	168.7	0.87×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.82	0.2%	181	168.7	1.07×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$0.80	0.2%	165	168.7	0.98×
AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.77	0.2%	174	168.7	1.03×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$0.74	0.2%	295	168.7	1.75×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$0.71	0.7%	683	675.0	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 500	$0.69	0.4%	420	337.5	1.24×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 250	$0.68	0.7%	372	675.0	0.55×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.67	0.7%	378	675.0	0.56×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 526	$0.67	0.3%	423	320.6	1.32×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 333	$0.66	0.5%	609	506.2	1.20×
MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.65	0.7%	466	675.0	0.69×
CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.55	0.6%	682	675.0	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.54	0.6%	941	675.0	1.39×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$0.54	0.6%	1,022	675.0	1.51×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.53	0.5%	767	675.0	1.14×
SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$0.51	0.5%	1,241	675.0	1.84×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$0.50	0.5%	1,479	675.0	2.19×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.50	0.5%	712	675.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.46	0.5%	3,157	675.0	4.68×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.44	1.1%	3,901	1687.5	2.31×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.44	3.4%	3,921	5062.5	0.77×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 33	$0.43	3.3%	3,826	5062.5	0.76×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 250	$0.43	0.4%	3,133	675.0	4.64×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.42	3.2%	3,287	5062.5	0.65×
P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$0.42	2.2%	3,496	3375.0	1.04×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.42	3.2%	3,095	5062.5	0.61×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.42	1.1%	2,784	1687.5	1.65×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.42	3.2%	3,353	5062.5	0.66×
P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 100	$0.41	1.1%	3,243	1687.5	1.92×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.40	2.1%	2,999	3375.0	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$0.40	2.1%	4,907	3375.0	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.40	3.1%	3,966	5062.5	0.78×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.40	3.1%	4,501	5062.5	0.89×
AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.39	3.0%	4,462	5062.5	0.88×
Sawed-Off \| Zander (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.37	2.9%	4,383	5062.5	0.87×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.37	2.9%	4,687	5062.5	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.36	2.8%	4,211	5062.5	0.83×
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.34	2.6%	4,671	5062.5	0.92×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.33	2.5%	4,086	5062.5	0.81×
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.32	2.5%	5,091	5062.5	1.01×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.31	2.4%	5,048	5062.5	1.00×
AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.30	2.3%	5,154	5062.5	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.30	2.3%	5,051	5062.5	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.27	2.1%	4,976	5062.5	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.27	2.1%	5,058	5062.5	1.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.25	1.9%	5,202	5062.5	1.03×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.14	1.1%	5,729	5062.5	1.13×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.13	1.0%	5,352	5062.5	1.06×
XM1014 \| Copperflage (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.13	1.0%	5,556	5062.5	1.10×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.12	0.9%	5,162	5062.5	1.02×
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.10	0.8%	5,321	5062.5	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.08	0.6%	5,078	5062.5	1.00×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$0.07	0.8%	5,377	7087.5	0.76×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/milspec, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · RareStyL$0.42$44.40105.7x13h

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · RareK.J.E ♛$0.43$44.04102.4x1d

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare$0.43$43.81101.9x2d

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rarebangbang_jj$0.43$43.80101.9x1d

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare$0.42$43.63103.9x1d

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare$0.42$43.62103.9x19h

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · RareIndianaGramos$0.43$43.57101.3x3d

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · RareSweet-N-Loh$0.44$43.2898.36x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.42$0.080.19x54s

P2000 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$0.42$0.421.00x54s

StatTrak™ Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffproo0xY$0.42$0.370.88x54s

MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare$0.42$0.070.17x1m

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$0.42$0.330.79x1m

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specproo0xY$0.42$0.370.88x1m

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffRed$0.42$3.077.31x1m

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.42$0.421.00x1m

Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.42$0.300.71x1m

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.42$0.691.64x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.42	92.45%	116
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.42	91.54%	116
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.42	92.26%	116
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.42	91.52%	116
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.42	91.68%	116
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.42	92.00%	116
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.42	92.47%	116
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.42	92.58%	116
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.43	92.85%	116
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.43	92.62%	116
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.43	92.28%	116
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.43	92.93%	116
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.43	92.05%	116
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.43	92.11%	116
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.43	92.04%	116
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.43	92.28%	116
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.43	92.02%	116
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.43	91.79%	116
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.43	92.11%	116
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.43	92.10%	116
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.43	91.91%	116
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.43	92.61%	116
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.43	93.02%	116
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.43	93.31%	116
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.44	91.66%	116
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.44	91.57%	116
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.44	92.07%	116
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.43	93.09%	116
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.43	92.43%	116
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.43	92.50%	116

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 3.0%Rare 41.2%mil spec 36.8%blue 0.4%#4b69ff 15.2%uncommon 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%milspec 3.4%best hit $44.40 (105.7x)