Mystic Hundred

A case on Skin.club (Bestseller Cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$4.91

Advertised RTP

92.59%

EV $4.55 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.73%

129K openings, odds method

Variance

5.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.16%±3.4118.1K openings

7 days

92.20%±1.45103K openings

30 days

92.73%±1.30129K openings

since tracking started

92.73%±1.30129K openings

85.0%89.8%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18.1K	89.16%±3.41	−1.9σ	odds
7d	103K	92.20%±1.45	−0.5σ	odds
30d	129K	92.73%±1.30	+0.3σ	odds
All	129K	92.73%±1.30	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$438	1.0%	11	12.9	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$340	0.7%	17	12.9	1.32×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$326	0.7%	17	12.9	1.32×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$278	0.6%	8	12.9	0.62×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$252	0.6%	10	12.9	0.77×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$203	0.4%	21	12.9	1.63×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$194	0.4%	16	12.9	1.24×
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$187	0.4%	15	12.9	1.16×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 10,000	$187	0.4%	9	12.9	0.70×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$161	0.4%	7	12.9	0.54×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 10,000	$150	0.3%	15	12.9	1.16×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$136	0.3%	14	12.9	1.08×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 10,000	$126	0.3%	12	12.9	0.93×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$114	0.3%	15	12.9	1.16×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$113	0.2%	15	12.9	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$111	0.2%	16	12.9	1.24×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$109	0.2%	89	12.9	6.90×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$107	0.2%	32	12.9	2.48×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$96.04	0.2%	8	12.9	0.62×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$95.30	0.2%	12	12.9	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$94.04	0.2%	19	12.9	1.47×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$92.78	0.2%	12	12.9	0.93×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$89.33	0.2%	14	12.9	1.08×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$86.79	0.2%	16	12.9	1.24×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$86.13	0.2%	13	12.9	1.01×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$73.14	0.2%	8	12.9	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$71.73	0.2%	11	12.9	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$70.00	0.2%	18	12.9	1.39×
AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$68.48	0.2%	13	12.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$59.23	0.1%	87	12.9	6.74×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$54.17	0.1%	15	12.9	1.16×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$52.56	0.1%	13	12.9	1.01×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$51.40	0.1%	9	12.9	0.70×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$50.21	0.1%	92	12.9	7.13×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$48.99	0.1%	105	12.9	8.14×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$48.66	0.1%	108	12.9	8.37×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 10,000	$46.80	0.1%	97	12.9	7.52×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$43.44	0.1%	18	12.9	1.39×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 10,000	$43.20	0.1%	13	12.9	1.01×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$42.90	0.9%	129	129.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$38.01	0.8%	106	129.0	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$36.64	0.8%	715	129.0	5.54×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$36.38	0.8%	125	129.0	0.97×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$35.69	0.8%	98	129.0	0.76×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$34.22	0.8%	577	129.0	4.47×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 1,000	$34.10	0.8%	504	129.0	3.91×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,000	$33.26	0.7%	219	129.0	1.70×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$33.07	0.7%	117	129.0	0.91×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$32.76	0.7%	203	129.0	1.57×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$31.85	0.7%	312	129.0	2.42×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 909	$29.21	0.7%	179	141.9	1.26×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$28.94	7.0%	230	1419.4	0.16×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$21.49	5.2%	428	1419.4	0.30×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 91	$21.23	5.1%	1,339	1419.4	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$18.85	4.6%	1,438	1419.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 91	$16.25	3.9%	1,401	1419.4	0.99×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 91	$13.79	3.3%	1,410	1419.4	0.99×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$12.69	3.1%	1,379	1419.4	0.97×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 91	$12.53	3.0%	1,462	1419.4	1.03×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$12.30	3.0%	1,392	1419.4	0.98×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$11.35	2.7%	1,396	1419.4	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 91	$9.58	2.3%	1,365	1419.4	0.96×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$7.84	1.9%	1,402	1419.4	0.99×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$7.04	1.7%	1,425	1419.4	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 91	$6.34	1.5%	1,371	1419.4	0.97×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$5.92	1.4%	1,418	1419.4	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$5.89	1.4%	1,335	1419.4	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$5.31	1.3%	1,430	1419.4	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$5.04	1.2%	1,437	1419.4	1.01×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 91	$4.99	1.2%	1,392	1419.4	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$4.67	1.1%	1,472	1419.4	1.04×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$4.29	1.0%	1,442	1419.4	1.02×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$4.17	1.0%	1,452	1419.4	1.02×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$3.98	1.0%	1,424	1419.4	1.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$3.93	1.0%	1,504	1419.4	1.06×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$3.85	0.9%	1,409	1419.4	0.99×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$3.81	0.9%	1,471	1419.4	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$3.79	0.9%	1,442	1419.4	1.02×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$3.72	0.9%	1,397	1419.4	0.98×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$3.66	0.9%	1,454	1419.4	1.02×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$3.59	0.9%	1,410	1419.4	0.99×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$3.53	0.9%	1,436	1419.4	1.01×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$3.50	0.8%	1,462	1419.4	1.03×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$3.29	0.8%	1,418	1419.4	1.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$2.97	0.7%	1,395	1419.4	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$2.43	0.6%	1,425	1419.4	1.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$2.42	0.6%	1,373	1419.4	0.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$2.16	0.5%	1,445	1419.4	1.02×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$1.93	0.5%	1,433	1419.4	1.01×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 91	$1.74	0.4%	1,383	1419.4	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$1.71	0.4%	1,410	1419.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$1.50	0.4%	1,445	1419.4	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 91	$1.42	0.3%	1,398	1419.4	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$1.41	0.3%	1,513	1419.4	1.07×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 91	$1.40	0.3%	1,401	1419.4	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.88	1.9%	12,717	12904.0	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.0%	$0.76	1.7%	12,871	12904.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.69	1.5%	12,853	12904.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.0%	$0.37	0.8%	12,912	12904.0	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.35	0.8%	13,099	12904.0	1.02×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/mystic-hundred, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$5.33$46487.08x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertMedieval$5.31$46387.28x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertAnthony Cheung ckkkk$5.30$46387.41x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertMonkeyMan$5.30$46387.41x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertLosVulpos$5.31$46387.25x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$5.33$46386.92x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$5.27$46187.48x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$5.30$45986.65x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertSpeedy Gonzales$5.28$45886.79x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertG I G A R A T 🐀$5.31$45886.28x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rareyön timppa$4.91$21.044.29x1m

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedyön timppa$4.91$12.332.51x1m

USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$4.91$0.690.14x1m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryBokii_86$4.91$3.820.78x1m

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$4.91$0.760.15x1m

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.91$3.600.73x1m

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$4.91$0.760.15x2m

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalBokii_86$4.91$0.760.15x2m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$4.91$4.981.01x2m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$4.91$5.371.09x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.59%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$4.91	92.59%	100
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$4.93	92.48%	100
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$4.92	92.43%	100
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.92	92.41%	100
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.93	92.51%	100
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.93	92.57%	100
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.92	92.58%	100
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$4.95	92.51%	100
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$5.33	92.42%	100
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$5.34	92.52%	100
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$5.34	92.43%	100
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$5.33	92.55%	100
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$5.33	92.50%	100
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$5.33	92.52%	100
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$5.34	92.54%	100
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$5.34	92.47%	100
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$5.33	92.58%	100
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$5.32	92.51%	100
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$5.32	92.49%	100
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$5.29	92.51%	100
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$5.31	92.52%	100
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.32	92.46%	100
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.31	92.44%	100
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.29	92.57%	100
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$5.29	92.58%	100
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$5.28	92.43%	100
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$5.28	92.49%	100
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$5.27	92.56%	100
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$5.27	92.59%	100
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$5.29	92.42%	100

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%extraordinary 1.2%Immortal 0.0%rare 1.2%Ancient 0.5%red 0.0%classified 10.0%Covert 0.0%Legendary 14.4%gold 0.1%Rare 1.1%#d32ee6 1.1%uncommon 2.2%pink 2.2%Classified 1.1%restricted 4.4%Mythical 16.6%#8847ff 1.1%mil spec 31.1%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%violet 10.0%best hit $464 (87.08x)