New to Town

A case on Skin.club (Bestseller Cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.60

Advertised RTP

92.79%

EV $0.56 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.80%

328K openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.12%±1.7135.8K openings

7 days

92.57%±0.66258K openings

30 days

92.80%±0.59328K openings

since tracking started

92.80%±0.59328K openings

90.0%92.3%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	35.8K	92.12%±1.71	−0.7σ	odds
7d	258K	92.57%±0.66	−0.2σ	odds
30d	328K	92.80%±0.59	+0.4σ	odds
All	328K	92.80%±0.59	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 328K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$45.40	2.4%	113	98.4	1.15×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$12.16	2.2%	333	328.1	1.02×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$7.46	2.0%	438	492.1	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$5.31	1.9%	693	656.1	1.06×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$4.29	1.5%	681	656.1	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 455	$3.79	1.5%	722	721.7	1.00×
Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.55	5.6%	6,490	6561.1	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.38	5.0%	6,347	6561.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$1.12	4.2%	6,906	6889.1	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.69	8.7%	26,183	22963.8	1.14×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	10.0%	$0.61	11.0%	29,397	32805.4	0.90×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.48	8.6%	32,779	32805.4	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.0%	$0.42	7.5%	32,851	32805.4	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.0%	$0.42	7.5%	32,783	32805.4	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	20.0%	$0.38	13.7%	53,672	65610.8	0.82×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	16.0%	$0.38	10.9%	42,339	52488.6	0.81×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.32	5.7%	55,327	32805.4	1.69×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/new-to-town, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGolden Rider$0.59$47.3680.27x4d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.60$47.2278.70x2d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.59$47.2080.00x4d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPickle Dickle$0.59$47.1179.85x2d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.59$47.1179.85x2d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.59$47.0779.78x4d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.59$47.0679.76x2d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.60$47.0178.35x2d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.60$47.0178.35x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.59$0.370.63x16s

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffKazi$0.59$0.430.73x16s

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$0.59$5.379.10x16s

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 3$0.59$0.601.02x16s

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.59$0.691.17x21s

CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueKazi$0.59$0.360.61x21s

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.59$0.430.73x21s

CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.59$0.360.61x21s

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$0.59$0.320.54x26s

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalKazi$0.59$0.370.63x26s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.79%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.60	92.79%	17
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.60	92.59%	17
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.60	92.40%	17
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.59	92.93%	17
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.59	93.24%	17
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.59	93.05%	17
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.60	92.34%	17
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.59	92.80%	17
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.60	91.81%	17
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.59	92.85%	17
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.60	92.60%	17
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.60	92.89%	17
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.60	92.28%	17
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.60	92.94%	17
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.60	91.82%	17
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.59	92.73%	17
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.59	93.06%	17
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.60	92.43%	17
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.59	93.00%	17
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.60	92.45%	17
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.60	92.50%	17
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.60	91.90%	17
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.59	92.92%	17
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.59	92.03%	17
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.58	93.09%	17
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.58	92.95%	17
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.58	92.45%	17
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.57	92.84%	17
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.57	92.96%	17
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.58	91.71%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 10.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%restricted 2.2%Legendary 0.6%mil spec 22.0%Rare 2.1%Mythical 23.0%#4b69ff 20.0%blue 20.0%best hit $47.36 (80.27x)