Nightmare

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$4.26

Advertised RTP

92.54%

EV $3.94 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.83%

15.1K openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.32%±13.681,602 openings

7 days

96.82%±5.0312.3K openings

30 days

96.83%±4.5415.1K openings

since tracking started

96.83%±4.5415.1K openings

78.0%92.3%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,602	92.32%±13.7	−0.0σ	odds
7d	12.3K	96.82%±5.03	+1.6σ	odds
30d	15.1K	96.83%±4.54	+1.8σ	odds
All	15.1K	96.83%±4.54	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$240	3.0%	2	7.6	0.26×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$199	2.5%	18	7.6	2.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$156	2.0%	10	7.6	1.32×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$105	1.3%	60	7.6	7.90×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 2,000	$104	1.3%	5	7.6	0.66×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,667	$95.06	1.4%	27	9.1	2.96×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,493	$94.71	1.6%	5	10.2	0.49×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$65.94	1.2%	9	10.6	0.85×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$65.72	1.7%	51	15.2	3.36×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 455	$60.14	3.4%	15	33.4	0.45×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$54.34	5.5%	37	60.7	0.61×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 250	$53.54	5.4%	26	60.7	0.43×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$45.30	4.6%	46	60.7	0.76×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$37.43	4.3%	61	68.3	0.89×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 167	$32.09	4.9%	99	91.1	1.09×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 154	$20.16	3.3%	23	98.7	0.23×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$17.46	3.1%	110	106.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 143	$12.97	2.3%	119	106.3	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 139	$12.59	2.3%	112	109.3	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$12.48	2.4%	31	113.9	0.27×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 110	$12.22	2.8%	41	138.1	0.30×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$9.95	2.8%	183	167.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$8.86	2.7%	410	182.2	2.25×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$7.12	2.3%	175	190.2	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 67	$6.66	2.5%	207	227.7	0.91×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.21	2.1%	476	303.6	1.57×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$4.11	3.1%	419	455.4	0.92×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$3.13	3.3%	1,029	622.4	1.65×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.23	4.5%	1,961	1214.5	1.61×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$1.81	5.5%	1,860	1821.7	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	13.0%	$1.43	4.7%	2,009	1973.5	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	14.4%	$0.65	2.4%	549	2186.1	0.25×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$0.51	1.9%	2,323	2277.2	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	16.0%	$0.44	1.8%	2,673	2429.0	1.10×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/nightmare_case, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$4.23$24557.83x1d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$4.26$24557.42x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$4.26$4.110.96x6m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.26$0.440.10x6m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$4.26$0.650.15x6m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedkriskoaleluq4$4.26$0.440.10x6m

AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$4.26$3.130.73x9m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.26$0.440.10x9m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalsnackbox_-$4.26$4.110.96x9m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.26$0.440.10x16m

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.26$0.510.12x16m

AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.26$2.230.52x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.54%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$4.26	92.54%	34
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$4.25	92.46%	34
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.23	92.50%	34
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.26	92.46%	34
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$4.57	92.44%	29
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$4.58	92.45%	29
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$4.63	92.42%	29
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$4.59	92.56%	29
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$4.60	92.47%	29
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$4.57	92.46%	29
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$4.56	92.56%	29
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.58	92.44%	29
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.55	92.52%	29
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$4.54	92.57%	29
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.54	92.45%	29
4 Nov, 04:45 UTC	$4.55	92.45%	29
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$4.54	92.50%	29
3 Nov, 01:40 UTC	$4.55	92.55%	29
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$4.58	92.50%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.5%classified 3.1%gold 0.1%Ancient 0.7%red 0.1%Immortal 0.2%restricted 70.2%Mythical 19.8%pink 3.2%Legendary 1.2%best hit $245 (57.83x)