Pirate King

A case on Skin.club (Anime Cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$4.18

Advertised RTP

92.43%

EV $3.86 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.31%

34.2K openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.72%±6.412,844 openings

7 days

93.02%±2.1525.7K openings

30 days

93.31%±1.8734.2K openings

since tracking started

93.31%±1.8734.2K openings

84.5%91.8%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,844	91.72%±6.41	−0.2σ	odds
7d	25.7K	93.02%±2.15	+0.5σ	odds
30d	34.2K	93.31%±1.87	+0.9σ	odds
All	34.2K	93.31%±1.87	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$172	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$132	0.1%	2	1.0	1.95×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$108	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 20,000	$105	0.1%	4	1.7	2.34×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$99.11	0.2%	3	2.4	1.25×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$89.32	0.2%	1	2.7	0.37×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.68	0.4%	5	6.8	0.73×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.27	0.4%	4	6.8	0.59×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$83.02	0.6%	7	10.3	0.68×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$81.20	0.6%	12	10.3	1.17×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 3,333	$78.64	0.6%	10	10.3	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$71.21	0.9%	23	17.1	1.35×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$62.70	1.1%	25	23.9	1.04×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 588	$52.94	2.3%	60	58.1	1.03×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 588	$47.90	2.1%	72	58.1	1.24×
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 588	$43.91	1.9%	58	58.1	1.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$43.03	3.6%	108	109.4	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 313	$38.62	3.2%	109	109.4	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$24.45	6.3%	347	341.8	1.02×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$18.14	6.8%	547	495.7	1.10×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 54	$13.40	6.4%	626	632.4	0.99×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$10.69	6.4%	804	786.2	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$9.90	6.4%	864	854.6	1.01×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$8.80	6.2%	906	923.0	0.98×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 30	$7.74	6.6%	1,085	1128.1	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$4.49	5.2%	1,326	1521.2	0.87×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 27	$4.33	4.1%	1,415	1264.8	1.12×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 24	$4.16	4.6%	1,477	1452.8	1.02×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$3.16	3.9%	1,562	1623.7	0.96×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$2.43	3.3%	1,810	1811.8	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$2.42	3.3%	1,810	1811.8	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$1.59	2.3%	1,995	1931.4	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$1.29	1.9%	2,009	1948.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$1.18	1.8%	2,080	2016.9	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$1.15	1.8%	1,949	2051.0	0.95×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$0.74	1.2%	2,111	2119.4	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$0.51	0.8%	2,159	2194.6	0.98×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$0.40	0.7%	2,261	2239.1	1.01×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 15	$0.40	0.7%	2,276	2239.1	1.02×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 15	$0.26	0.5%	2,262	2307.4	0.98×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/one-piece, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDamnit It Ripped$4.18$10.692.56x8m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendaryfzero$4.18$13.453.22x12m

USP-S | Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDamnit It Ripped$4.18$43.9510.51x13m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$4.18$7.731.85x23m

PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$4.18$2.440.58x23m

Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$4.18$1.290.31x23m

SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkHiCaterpillar$4.18$9.962.38x23m

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$4.18$0.240.06x24m

PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$4.18$2.410.58x24m

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.18$3.140.75x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.43%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$4.18	92.43%	40
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$4.17	92.39%	40
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$4.17	92.51%	40
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$4.18	92.58%	40
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$4.16	92.48%	40
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.16	92.45%	40
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.16	92.48%	40
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.16	92.61%	40
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.14	92.56%	40
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$4.16	92.42%	40
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$4.16	92.43%	40
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$4.18	92.56%	40
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$4.19	92.44%	40
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$4.19	92.51%	40
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$4.19	92.43%	40
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$4.19	92.57%	40
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$4.19	92.60%	40
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$4.18	92.41%	40
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$4.18	92.40%	40
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$4.17	92.60%	40
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$4.18	92.59%	40
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$4.17	92.59%	40
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$4.17	92.49%	40
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$4.15	92.52%	40
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.17	92.48%	40
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.18	92.50%	40
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.17	92.47%	40
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.17	92.43%	40
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.17	92.51%	40
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$4.16	92.48%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%Immortal 0.0%classified 11.4%gold 0.0%Ancient 0.2%Legendary 14.6%pink 2.5%restricted 16.9%violet 11.5%Mythical 17.5%#8847ff 5.7%mil spec 12.4%Rare 6.8%best hit —