Operation Breakout Weapon

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$2.31

Advertised RTP

92.68%

EV $2.14 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.13%

18K openings, odds method

Variance

16.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

111.66%±15.802,597 openings

7 days

94.90%±6.7214K openings

30 days

94.13%±5.9218K openings

since tracking started

94.13%±5.9218K openings

87.5%107.8%128.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,597	111.66%±15.8	+2.4σ	odds
7d	14K	94.90%±6.72	+0.7σ	odds
30d	18K	94.13%±5.92	+0.6σ	odds
All	18K	94.13%±5.92	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$240	2.2%	3	3.6	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$209	2.0%	4	3.6	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$189	3.5%	8	7.2	1.11×
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$189	3.5%	2	7.2	0.28×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$182	3.4%	12	7.2	1.66×
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$181	3.4%	8	7.2	1.11×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$63.82	1.2%	12	7.2	1.66×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,500	$59.70	1.1%	11	7.2	1.52×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$48.97	1.8%	18	14.4	1.25×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$35.28	1.6%	17	18.0	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 714	$30.50	2.0%	19	25.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$30.39	1.4%	21	18.0	1.16×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$22.10	1.5%	39	27.1	1.44×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 667	$21.51	1.5%	38	27.1	1.40×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 667	$20.86	1.5%	51	27.1	1.88×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$20.44	1.9%	60	36.1	1.66×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 323	$20.31	2.9%	48	55.9	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$20.20	2.8%	35	54.1	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 278	$19.98	3.4%	68	65.0	1.05×
P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 263	$9.27	1.6%	92	68.6	1.34×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$9.14	2.1%	64	90.2	0.71×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$6.50	1.5%	65	90.2	0.72×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$4.11	1.0%	122	90.2	1.35×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$3.99	0.9%	110	90.2	1.22×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$3.98	1.1%	97	108.3	0.90×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$3.77	1.8%	121	180.4	0.67×
P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$3.71	1.7%	201	180.4	1.11×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.64	1.7%	279	180.4	1.55×
Nova \| Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$3.48	1.6%	274	180.4	1.52×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.29	1.5%	340	180.4	1.88×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$3.02	2.8%	250	360.9	0.69×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.60	2.4%	361	360.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.51	2.3%	331	360.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.47	2.3%	358	360.9	0.99×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.45	2.3%	316	360.9	0.88×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$2.43	2.3%	328	360.9	0.91×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.42	2.3%	344	360.9	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.40	2.2%	334	360.9	0.93×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.37	2.2%	383	360.9	1.06×
Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.35	2.2%	344	360.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.21	2.1%	303	360.9	0.84×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.14	1.1%	242	360.9	0.67×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$1.06	1.5%	512	541.3	0.95×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.92	1.3%	1,096	541.3	2.02×
P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.50	1.4%	1,156	1082.6	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	10.0%	$0.45	2.1%	1,970	1804.3	1.09×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.45	1.5%	1,181	1263.0	0.94×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.43	1.8%	1,388	1623.9	0.85×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	13.0%	$0.36	2.2%	2,454	2345.6	1.05×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	14.7%	$0.33	2.3%	2,153	2652.3	0.81×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/operationbreakout, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covertZoMbiS$2.30$248107.7x6d

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert♿Fernet$2.28$246107.8x8d

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.35$243103.4x2d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covertThe Meown in Black$2.29$20489.07x22h

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covertCaptain_Stone$2.28$19886.80x8d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covertBulviuCEO$2.24$19788.08x1d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covertBulviuCEO$2.25$19787.69x1d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covertkrumpli$2.35$19482.60x2d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covertMisha$2.30$19283.33x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec$2.31$0.450.19x2m

StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalCrassus$2.31$2.471.07x2m

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$2.31$2.601.13x5m

StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalCrassus$2.31$2.210.96x5m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$2.31$0.360.16x5m

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPixelToni$2.31$6.502.81x5m

Negev | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$2.31$0.330.14x5m

P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$2.31$0.500.22x5m

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare$2.31$0.430.19x6m

Negev | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarePixelToni$2.31$0.330.14x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.68%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$2.31	92.68%	50
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$2.31	92.52%	50
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$2.30	92.52%	50
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$2.29	92.53%	50
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$2.29	92.51%	50
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.29	92.35%	50
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.26	92.67%	50
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.24	92.46%	50
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.24	92.40%	50
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$2.25	92.40%	50
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$2.34	92.68%	50
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$2.34	92.64%	50
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$2.35	92.35%	50
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$2.34	92.69%	50
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$2.34	92.53%	50
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$2.34	92.51%	50
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$2.34	92.40%	50
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$2.33	92.43%	50
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$2.33	92.64%	50
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$2.33	92.32%	50
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$2.32	92.69%	50
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$2.32	92.35%	50
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$2.32	92.61%	50
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$2.32	92.33%	50
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.32	92.50%	50
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.32	92.61%	50
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.32	92.65%	50
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.32	92.30%	50
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.30	92.55%	50
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$2.29	92.67%	50

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%classified 1.8%Legendary 0.3%Rare 46.1%Mythical 18.1%restricted 9.5%violet 2.0%mil spec 12.0%Mil Spec 10.0%best hit $248 (107.7x)