P90

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.81

Advertised RTP

91.98%

EV $0.75 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.74%

71.6K openings, odds method

Variance

21.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 31

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.40%±10.577,419 openings

7 days

93.70%±3.7353.7K openings

30 days

92.74%±3.2271.6K openings

since tracking started

92.74%±3.2271.6K openings

83.0%94.2%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7,419	94.40%±10.6	+0.4σ	odds
7d	53.7K	93.70%±3.73	+0.6σ	odds
30d	71.6K	92.74%±3.22	+0.1σ	odds
All	71.6K	92.74%±3.22	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$189	2.5%	15	7.2	2.09×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$140	3.8%	11	14.4	0.77×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$86.72	3.5%	13	21.5	0.60×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$42.91	2.3%	25	28.7	0.87×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$32.30	2.2%	75	35.9	2.09×
P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,667	$29.31	2.4%	51	43.1	1.18×
P90 \| Death Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 1,429	$24.61	2.3%	38	50.3	0.76×
P90 \| Tiger Pit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,429	$13.46	1.3%	32	50.3	0.64×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,429	$12.66	1.2%	44	50.3	0.88×
P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 833	$11.57	1.9%	51	86.2	0.59×
P90 \| Sunset Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 500	$11.28	3.0%	146	143.7	1.02×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$10.74	1.7%	213	86.2	2.47×
P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 333	$10.57	4.3%	266	215.5	1.23×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 303	$8.88	3.9%	243	237.0	1.03×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 303	$8.64	3.8%	172	237.0	0.73×
P90 \| Leather (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 270	$7.91	3.9%	190	265.8	0.71×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 250	$4.97	2.7%	345	287.3	1.20×
P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 167	$4.77	3.8%	355	431.0	0.82×
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$4.77	2.6%	323	287.3	1.12×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 167	$3.76	3.0%	474	431.0	1.10×
P90 \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 161	$2.86	2.4%	395	445.4	0.89×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 161	$2.75	2.3%	466	445.4	1.05×
P90 \| Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 143	$1.86	1.7%	538	502.8	1.07×
P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 143	$1.53	1.4%	515	502.8	1.02×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 130	$1.16	1.2%	642	553.1	1.16×
P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 143	$1.16	1.1%	1,091	502.8	2.17×
P90 \| Sand Spray (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 143	$1.11	1.0%	530	502.8	1.05×
P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 125	$0.97	1.0%	525	574.6	0.91×
P90 \| Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 100	$0.61	0.8%	4,029	718.3	5.61×
P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 59	$0.56	1.3%	3,639	1221.1	2.98×
P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 43	$0.52	1.6%	854	1652.1	0.52×
P90 \| Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$0.52	2.0%	3,255	2011.3	1.62×
P90 \| Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.51	2.1%	3,145	2154.9	1.46×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.41	2.8%	3,080	3591.5	0.86×
P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.40	2.7%	4,622	3591.5	1.29×
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 20	$0.40	2.7%	3,610	3591.5	1.01×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 29	$0.38	1.8%	3,175	2514.1	1.26×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.36	2.4%	4,549	3591.5	1.27×
P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.32	2.6%	4,702	4381.7	1.07×
P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 15	$0.24	2.1%	2,870	4740.8	0.61×
P90 \| Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.22	2.1%	2,715	5028.2	0.54×
P90 \| Ash Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.14	1.3%	3,027	5028.2	0.60×
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.13	1.2%	4,424	5028.2	0.88×
P90 \| Wash me (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 14	$0.12	1.2%	3,860	5171.8	0.75×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 14	$0.09	0.8%	3,142	5028.2	0.62×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 13	$0.03	0.3%	5,349	5746.5	0.93×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/p90, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertZoraGoodman$0.80$189236.6x15m

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.80$189236.4x9h

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.80$187234.1x1d

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDave Mustaine$0.91$187205.7x5d

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGojo Satoru$0.91$187205.4x5d

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertToji$0.91$187205.3x5d

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert.$0.91$186204.6x2d

P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.91$186204.6x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9$0.81$0.090.11x53s

P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · graykaluginz$0.81$0.400.49x53s

P90 | Wash me (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$0.81$0.120.15x53s

P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9$0.81$0.090.11x53s

P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.81$0.130.16x58s

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Commonkaluginz$0.81$0.240.30x58s

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$0.81$0.240.30x58s

P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.81$0.320.40x58s

P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.81$0.140.17x1m

P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommonkaluginz$0.81$0.140.17x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.81	91.98%	46
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.80	92.75%	46
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.80	92.73%	46
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.81	91.93%	46
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.81	92.18%	46
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.81	92.01%	46
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.80	93.04%	46
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.80	92.50%	46
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.80	92.01%	46
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.80	92.61%	46
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.91	92.39%	46
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.91	92.89%	46
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.91	92.91%	46
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.91	92.92%	46
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.91	92.89%	46
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.92	92.24%	46
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.92	92.09%	46
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.92	92.22%	46
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.92	92.25%	46
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.92	92.54%	46
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.92	92.31%	46
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.92	92.27%	46
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.92	92.43%	46
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.92	92.02%	46
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.91	92.90%	46
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.91	92.66%	46
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.92	92.11%	46
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.91	92.30%	46
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.91	92.41%	46
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.91	92.90%	46

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.2%mil spec 14.0%violet 5.8%Rare 6.6%uncommon 0.1%Legendary 0.5%industrial 0.9%restricted 0.9%Mythical 3.8%#8847ff 0.6%Common 16.6%Restricted 0.7%Uncommon 15.0%#4b69ff 8.0%gray 5.0%blue 7.0%#5e98d9 14.2%best hit $189 (236.6x)