Pickle World

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.51

Advertised RTP

92.87%

EV $0.47 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.75%

38.7K openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

107.82%±26.73605 openings

7 days

91.88%±4.5231.7K openings

30 days

91.75%±4.0738.7K openings

since tracking started

91.75%±4.0738.7K openings

80.5%107.8%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	605	107.82%±26.7	+1.1σ	odds
7d	31.7K	91.88%±4.52	−0.4σ	odds
30d	38.7K	91.75%±4.07	−0.4σ	odds
All	38.7K	91.75%±4.07	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$112	1.9%	13	3.1	4.19×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$45.26	3.0%	2	12.0	0.17×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$16.53	2.1%	29	23.6	1.23×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 769	$12.89	3.5%	106	50.4	2.10×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 435	$12.24	5.9%	14	89.2	0.16×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 435	$12.20	5.9%	81	89.2	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 435	$5.29	2.6%	120	89.2	1.35×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$4.72	6.1%	290	236.5	1.23×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 145	$2.91	4.2%	355	267.5	1.33×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 132	$1.86	3.0%	605	294.6	2.05×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$1.81	4.6%	411	465.2	0.88×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$1.26	3.7%	571	542.7	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$0.85	3.2%	833	697.8	1.19×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$0.76	4.0%	1,640	969.2	1.69×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 32	$0.59	3.9%	1,404	1201.7	1.17×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.58	4.2%	1,400	1318.0	1.06×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$0.39	3.5%	2,646	1628.2	1.63×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 15	$0.36	5.2%	2,431	2636.1	0.92×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.35	3.7%	2,416	1938.3	1.25×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.34	3.6%	3,478	1938.3	1.79×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.28	5.0%	4,419	3256.3	1.36×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 11	$0.24	4.7%	3,477	3566.5	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$0.19	4.0%	548	3837.8	0.14×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	11.7%	$0.16	4.0%	637	4535.6	0.14×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	11.7%	$0.10	2.5%	5,857	4535.6	1.29×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.7%	$0.09	2.2%	4,983	4543.4	1.10×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/pickle-world, 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSafari$0.51$112219.4x1d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert.....$0.51$112219.4x1d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSafari$0.51$112219.3x1d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertFB PDH$0.60$112186.0x3d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertFANTAFROMHARVARD$0.60$111185.5x2d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertsimoh!$0.60$111185.5x4d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBliint5$0.60$111185.5x2d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.60$111185.3x4d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.60$111185.2x3d

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertedby$0.60$111185.2x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedJast$0.51$1.252.45x18h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedWilson10kk$0.51$4.659.12x18h

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$12.8025.10x18h

AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$12.2323.98x19h

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$2.915.71x19h

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$1.252.45x19h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$1.843.61x19h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$4.659.12x19h

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary88翻斗花园不养闲人88$0.51$2.895.67x19h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedGideon M$0.51$4.659.12x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.51	92.87%	26
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.51	92.57%	26
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.51	92.45%	26
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.51	92.11%	26
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.51	92.23%	26
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.60	92.61%	23
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.60	92.74%	23
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.60	91.94%	23
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.60	92.56%	23
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.60	92.64%	23
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.60	92.55%	23
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.60	92.77%	23
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.60	92.49%	23
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.60	92.60%	23
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.60	92.39%	23
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.60	92.11%	23
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.60	92.35%	23
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.60	92.28%	23
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.60	91.84%	23
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.60	91.87%	23
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.60	92.47%	23
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.61	92.51%	23
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.60	93.13%	23
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.61	92.94%	23
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.62	91.89%	23
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.62	92.16%	23
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.62	92.19%	23
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.62	92.38%	23
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.62	93.08%	23
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.62	92.23%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.2%pink 0.2%Legendary 1.1%restricted 5.0%Mythical 0.8%Rare 35.1%mil spec 21.4%milspec 8.4%Mil Spec Grade 6.8%#87c7ff 20.9%best hit $112 (219.4x)