Radiant

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.36

Advertised RTP

91.52%

EV $0.33 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.63%

114K openings, odds method

Variance

13.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.56%±6.8111K openings

7 days

92.58%±2.4586.9K openings

30 days

92.63%±2.13114K openings

since tracking started

92.63%±2.13114K openings

89.5%98.3%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11K	99.56%±6.81	+2.3σ	odds
7d	86.9K	92.58%±2.45	+0.1σ	odds
30d	114K	92.63%±2.13	+0.3σ	odds
All	114K	92.63%±2.13	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 115K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 333	$20.75	18.9%	345	343.6	1.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 333	$8.51	7.7%	362	343.6	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 333	$5.17	4.7%	358	343.6	1.04×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 286	$5.02	5.3%	364	400.9	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 250	$2.55	3.1%	460	458.1	1.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 217	$2.46	3.4%	531	526.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 152	$1.17	2.3%	808	755.9	1.07×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 108	$1.02	2.9%	1,059	1065.2	0.99×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 71	$0.78	3.3%	1,565	1603.5	0.98×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 67	$0.68	3.1%	1,723	1718.0	1.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$0.63	3.1%	1,745	1832.6	0.95×
MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 63	$0.61	3.0%	1,880	1832.6	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 59	$0.54	2.8%	1,877	1947.1	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$0.47	2.9%	2,342	2290.7	1.02×
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$0.41	2.6%	2,444	2405.2	1.02×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 45	$0.40	2.7%	2,548	2519.8	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.36	3.3%	2,629	3436.0	0.77×
MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 45	$0.34	2.3%	3,378	2519.8	1.34×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.30	2.7%	3,488	3436.0	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 25	$0.19	2.3%	4,731	4581.4	1.03×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 25	$0.17	2.1%	4,738	4581.4	1.03×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 25	$0.15	1.8%	4,596	4581.4	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$0.14	1.9%	5,048	5039.5	1.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.14	1.7%	5,038	4581.4	1.10×
MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.14	2.1%	4,789	5726.7	0.84×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 25	$0.13	1.6%	5,099	4581.4	1.11×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 20	$0.12	1.8%	5,350	5726.7	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 17	$0.05	0.9%	7,586	6643.0	1.14×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 17	$0.05	0.9%	7,818	6643.0	1.18×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 17	$0.05	0.9%	8,219	6872.1	1.20×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.04	0.8%	7,233	8017.4	0.90×
CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 14	$0.03	0.6%	6,985	8017.4	0.87×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 13	$0.02	0.5%	7,399	9162.8	0.81×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/radiant-collection, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryTΛIしUNG$0.37$22.1059.73x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$0.38$22.1058.16x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryKauro$0.37$22.1059.73x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryMarcus.$0.38$22.1058.16x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryＴａｔｏＺ$0.37$22.1059.73x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryQazWolf$0.37$22.1059.73x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryMartin Matte$0.37$22.1059.73x6d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryEzimuschi Clan ツ$0.37$22.0959.70x4d

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryFatalRush$0.37$22.0959.70x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.36$0.350.97x2m

M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight$0.36$0.150.42x2m

Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.36$0.130.36x2m

FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon辜桃奈加草$0.36$0.020.06x2m

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.36$0.401.11x3m

MP9 | Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rareakridas70$0.36$0.140.39x3m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$0.36$0.471.31x3m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common$0.36$0.190.53x3m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common$0.36$0.190.53x4m

MP9 | Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare$0.36$0.140.39x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.52%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.36	91.52%	33
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.36	91.83%	33
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.36	91.39%	33
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.36	91.56%	33
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.36	92.26%	33
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.36	91.94%	33
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.36	91.73%	33
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.36	92.14%	33
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.36	92.42%	33
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.36	92.62%	33
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.36	92.46%	33
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.37	91.33%	33
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.37	93.27%	33
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.37	92.57%	33
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.37	92.05%	33
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.37	92.19%	33
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.37	92.60%	33
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.37	92.62%	33
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.37	92.69%	33
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.37	92.62%	33
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.37	92.22%	33
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.37	92.36%	33
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.37	92.93%	33
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.37	92.70%	33
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.37	93.16%	33
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.38	91.65%	33
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.37	93.32%	33
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.37	92.86%	33
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.37	93.47%	33
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.37	92.68%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.3%pink 0.3%violet 0.3%Mythical 2.1%blue 12.9%Rare 21.9%milspec 1.6%common 4.0%blueLight 8.0%Uncommon 24.0%Common 18.6%#5e98d9 6.0%best hit $22.10 (59.73x)