Restricted

A case on Skin.club (By quality), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.91

Advertised RTP

92.35%

EV $0.84 from 107 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.27%

148K openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.71%±3.0514.8K openings

7 days

92.13%±1.09126K openings

30 days

92.27%±1.01148K openings

since tracking started

92.27%±1.01148K openings

88.0%91.8%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.8K	91.71%±3.05	−0.4σ	odds
7d	126K	92.13%±1.09	−0.4σ	odds
30d	148K	92.27%±1.01	−0.2σ	odds
All	148K	92.27%±1.01	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values107 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 148K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$89.52	1.1%	14	14.8	0.94×
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$78.70	0.9%	13	14.8	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$38.93	0.5%	52	14.8	3.50×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$37.39	0.4%	15	14.8	1.01×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$32.69	0.4%	24	14.8	1.62×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$32.61	0.4%	12	14.8	0.81×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$29.99	0.7%	28	29.7	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$26.14	0.6%	20	29.7	0.67×
FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$19.17	0.5%	28	29.7	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$13.55	0.3%	27	29.7	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 5,000	$13.44	0.3%	38	29.7	1.28×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$12.72	0.3%	49	29.7	1.65×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$11.85	0.6%	50	59.4	0.84×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$11.04	0.5%	44	59.4	0.74×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,500	$10.55	0.5%	41	59.4	0.69×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$10.38	0.5%	51	59.4	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,500	$9.61	0.5%	49	59.4	0.83×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,500	$9.18	0.4%	52	59.4	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$8.33	0.4%	66	59.4	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,500	$7.59	0.4%	64	59.4	1.08×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$7.39	0.4%	74	59.4	1.25×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$6.84	0.4%	72	74.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$6.72	0.4%	56	74.2	0.75×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,000	$6.70	0.4%	61	74.2	0.82×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$6.63	0.4%	70	74.2	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 2,000	$6.41	0.4%	63	74.2	0.85×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,000	$6.21	0.4%	83	74.2	1.12×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$5.87	0.3%	62	74.2	0.84×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,000	$5.84	0.3%	76	74.2	1.02×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$5.12	0.3%	91	74.2	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 2,000	$5.10	0.3%	67	74.2	0.90×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$5.03	0.3%	80	74.2	1.08×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$4.98	0.3%	87	74.2	1.17×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$4.75	0.4%	81	103.9	0.78×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,429	$4.48	0.4%	86	103.9	0.83×
MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$4.41	0.4%	106	103.9	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$4.23	0.4%	124	103.9	1.19×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$4.21	0.4%	113	103.9	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,429	$4.17	0.3%	114	103.9	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,429	$4.08	0.3%	132	103.9	1.27×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$3.98	0.3%	90	103.9	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$3.77	0.4%	100	118.7	0.84×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,250	$3.69	0.4%	106	118.7	0.89×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$3.20	0.3%	119	118.7	1.00×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,250	$3.14	0.3%	112	118.7	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,250	$3.00	0.3%	111	118.7	0.93×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,250	$2.99	0.3%	113	118.7	0.95×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$2.93	0.3%	123	118.7	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,250	$2.89	0.3%	125	118.7	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$2.85	0.3%	118	118.7	0.99×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$2.70	0.3%	151	118.7	1.27×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$2.65	0.3%	113	148.4	0.76×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,000	$2.58	0.3%	152	148.4	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 1,000	$2.50	0.3%	153	148.4	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 1,000	$2.44	0.3%	229	148.4	1.54×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,000	$2.44	0.3%	123	148.4	0.83×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$2.38	0.3%	243	148.4	1.64×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,000	$2.30	0.3%	242	148.4	1.63×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$2.27	0.5%	230	296.9	0.77×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$2.20	0.5%	245	296.9	0.83×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 500	$2.10	0.5%	203	296.9	0.68×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$2.00	0.5%	301	296.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1.98	0.5%	277	296.9	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1.85	0.4%	403	296.9	1.36×
MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 500	$1.81	0.4%	318	296.9	1.07×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1.77	0.4%	341	296.9	1.15×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 500	$1.77	0.4%	381	296.9	1.28×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 500	$1.68	0.4%	424	296.9	1.43×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1.62	0.4%	638	296.9	2.15×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 500	$1.62	0.4%	318	296.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 200	$1.58	0.9%	519	742.1	0.70×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 500	$1.53	0.4%	414	296.9	1.39×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 500	$1.52	0.4%	836	296.9	2.82×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 200	$1.52	0.9%	321	742.1	0.43×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 500	$1.52	0.4%	511	296.9	1.72×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$1.41	0.8%	462	742.1	0.62×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.38	0.8%	587	742.1	0.79×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.36	0.8%	862	742.1	1.16×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.34	0.8%	911	742.1	1.23×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$1.32	1.6%	906	1484.3	0.61×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 200	$1.31	0.8%	857	742.1	1.15×
P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 200	$1.31	0.8%	867	742.1	1.17×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.30	0.8%	922	742.1	1.24×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 200	$1.30	0.8%	727	742.1	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.24	0.7%	743	742.1	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.24	0.7%	809	742.1	1.09×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$1.19	1.4%	1,099	1484.3	0.74×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$1.12	1.3%	1,339	1484.3	0.90×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.07	1.3%	1,361	1484.3	0.92×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.02	1.2%	1,546	1484.3	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.85	1.0%	1,490	1484.3	1.00×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.85	1.0%	1,491	1484.3	1.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.83	1.0%	1,492	1484.3	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.76	1.8%	4,033	2968.6	1.36×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.74	1.8%	2,988	2968.6	1.01×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.74	1.8%	3,711	2968.6	1.25×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$0.70	2.5%	5,813	4452.9	1.31×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$0.69	2.5%	5,006	4452.9	1.12×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.67	4.0%	6,105	7421.5	0.82×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 33	$0.64	2.3%	6,422	4452.9	1.44×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.59	4.9%	10,325	10390.1	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.59	4.9%	10,277	10390.1	0.99×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.56	4.7%	7,816	10390.1	0.75×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$0.54	4.5%	12,021	10390.1	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$0.46	5.5%	11,118	14843.0	0.75×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.0%	$0.42	5.0%	17,097	14843.0	1.15×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.8%	$0.38	5.3%	15,589	17514.7	0.89×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/restricted, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$0.91$97.05106.6x8d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$0.91$96.33105.9x7d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · MythicalTheo Atacant Imprevizibil$0.91$96.33105.9x7d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · MythicalActaEstFabula$0.91$96.12105.6x7d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalsiuuuuuuuuuu$0.90$95.68106.3x7d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · MythicalViggefalun10 #skinape$0.90$95.53106.1x7d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · MythicalHecTHOR$0.91$94.84104.2x6d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalhimbo$0.92$94.32102.5x5d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$0.92$92.50100.5x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBelicigo$0.91$6.647.30x47s

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.91$0.760.84x1m

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBelicigo$0.91$6.647.30x1m

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.91$0.740.81x1m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBelicigo$0.91$0.690.76x1m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.91$0.690.76x1m

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.91$0.740.81x1m

P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.91$0.660.73x1m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedjohan heitanen$0.91$0.850.93x1m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$0.91$0.460.51x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.35%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.91	92.35%	107
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.91	92.18%	107
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.91	92.30%	107
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.91	92.40%	107
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.91	92.46%	107
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.91	92.15%	107
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.91	92.60%	107
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.90	92.76%	107
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.93	92.52%	107
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.93	92.82%	107
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.94	92.09%	107
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.93	92.98%	107
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.94	92.04%	107
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.94	92.10%	107
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.94	92.38%	107
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.94	92.32%	107
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.94	92.05%	107
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.93	92.50%	107
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.92	92.88%	107
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.92	92.62%	107
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.92	92.44%	107
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.92	92.26%	107
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.91	92.99%	107
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.91	92.44%	107
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.91	92.95%	107
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.92	92.27%	107
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.92	92.10%	107
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.91	92.69%	107
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.91	92.90%	107
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.91	92.30%	107

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 3.6%Mythical 44.8%restricted 26.0%uncommon 0.5%violet 12.8%#8847ff 2.2%rare 0.1%Restricted 10.0%best hit $97.05 (106.6x)