SG 553
A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$0.65
Advertised RTP
93.15%
EV $0.61 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.38%
54K openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/sg553, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.15%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.65 | 93.15% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.65 | 92.90% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.65 | 93.04% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.65 | 92.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.65 | 92.64% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.65 | 92.78% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.66 | 91.85% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.65 | 93.02% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.65 | 92.70% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.65 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.71 | 92.32% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.72 | 91.87% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.72 | 92.21% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.71 | 92.44% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.71 | 92.68% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.71 | 92.46% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.71 | 93.05% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.72 | 92.64% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.72 | 92.61% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.71 | 93.12% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.71 | 92.37% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.70 | 93.16% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.70 | 92.33% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.70 | 93.14% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.71 | 91.87% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.70 | 92.90% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.71 | 92.65% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.70 | 93.12% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.71 | 92.23% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.70 | 92.67% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%Uncommon 8.5%mil spec 1.3%Common 36.4%Industrial 0.3%pink 0.2%restricted 1.6%industrial 0.5%Mythical 7.0%violet 2.0%Rare 31.0%blue 7.0%grey 4.0%best hit —