Shadow

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.40

Advertised RTP

92.41%

EV $1.29 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.23%

24.9K openings, odds method

Variance

10.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.41%±12.122,721 openings

7 days

89.29%±4.4919.7K openings

30 days

90.23%±3.9824.9K openings

since tracking started

90.23%±3.9824.9K openings

76.5%89.3%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,721	89.41%±12.1	−0.5σ	odds
7d	19.7K	89.29%±4.49	−1.3σ	odds
30d	24.9K	90.23%±3.98	−1.1σ	odds
All	24.9K	90.23%±3.98	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$134	2.1%	6	5.0	1.20×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$99.64	1.5%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.42	1.3%	2	5.0	0.40×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$68.94	1.1%	9	5.0	1.81×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$67.90	1.0%	11	5.0	2.21×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$67.11	1.0%	5	5.0	1.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$66.82	2.1%	4	10.0	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$62.57	2.9%	9	15.0	0.60×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,667	$52.01	2.4%	9	15.0	0.60×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$29.99	2.3%	32	24.9	1.28×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$27.32	2.3%	28	27.4	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$26.07	2.2%	26	27.4	0.95×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$24.10	3.7%	65	49.9	1.30×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$14.81	2.3%	55	49.9	1.10×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$10.58	2.5%	59	74.8	0.79×
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 200	$7.58	2.9%	103	124.6	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 200	$6.97	2.7%	161	124.6	1.29×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 125	$6.43	4.0%	189	199.4	0.95×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$6.42	3.0%	144	149.6	0.96×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$5.09	3.1%	174	199.4	0.87×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$3.88	2.4%	565	199.4	2.83×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 125	$3.53	2.2%	205	199.4	1.03×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$2.70	2.1%	764	249.3	3.07×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$2.23	1.7%	229	249.3	0.92×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.67	2.6%	303	498.5	0.61×
XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 100	$1.64	1.3%	499	249.3	2.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 45	$1.40	2.4%	285	548.4	0.52×
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$1.17	2.7%	549	747.8	0.73×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.14	2.6%	727	747.8	0.97×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$1.05	4.1%	823	1246.3	0.66×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 24	$1.05	3.4%	1,175	1046.9	1.12×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.85	3.3%	1,107	1246.3	0.89×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.74	3.4%	1,490	1495.6	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.67	3.1%	1,487	1495.6	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.61	2.8%	1,454	1495.6	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.42	1.9%	2,693	1495.6	1.80×
XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.39	1.8%	1,656	1495.6	1.11×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 11	$0.36	2.6%	1,995	2368.0	0.84×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.36	2.2%	1,898	1994.1	0.95×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.33	1.8%	1,888	1744.8	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	12.0%	$0.32	3.0%	2,038	2991.1	0.68×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/shadow, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classifiedtheffburgerboy$1.40$13495.86x3h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classifiedChameleonik෴®$1.40$13495.86x3h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.47$11578.46x4d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertExz0$1.48$10772.01x3d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classifiedEVO$1.45$10673.28x6d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classifiedEVO$1.46$10672.77x6d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1.45$10673.10x7d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1.50$10469.33x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecTodesgurke$1.40$0.310.22x1m

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1.40$5.133.66x1m

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec GradeMobLobster$1.40$0.370.26x11m

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecolzpeE2K$1.40$0.310.22x11m

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecGodles$1.40$0.310.22x11m

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec GradeLOTUS$1.40$0.370.26x11m

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$1.40$0.340.24x13m

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.40$0.370.26x13m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$1.40$0.350.25x13m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specPixelToni$1.40$0.350.25x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.41%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.40	92.41%	41
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.39	92.61%	41
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.39	92.75%	41
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.39	92.43%	41
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.39	92.34%	41
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.39	92.39%	41
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.39	92.27%	41
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.39	92.45%	41
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.50	92.76%	41
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.51	92.23%	41
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.50	92.79%	41
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.50	92.44%	41
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.50	92.27%	41
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.49	92.39%	41
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.49	92.40%	41
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.48	92.80%	41
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.49	92.43%	41
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.48	92.40%	41
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.47	92.62%	41
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$1.47	92.31%	41
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.47	92.70%	41
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.47	92.47%	41
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.47	92.38%	41
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.46	92.71%	41
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.46	92.29%	41
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$1.45	92.31%	41
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$1.44	92.73%	41
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.44	92.18%	41
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.44	92.36%	41
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.44	92.67%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.2%classified 0.8%covert 0.2%Immortal 0.1%restricted 5.6%violet 3.5%blue 0.5%Mythical 8.0%mil spec 32.8%#4b69ff 6.8%Rare 16.0%Mil Spec Grade 9.5%milspec 12.0%best hit $134 (95.86x)