StatTrak™
A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$10.74
Advertised RTP
92.50%
EV $9.93 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.26%
8,537 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.45% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.41% – 89.12%, 8,537 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,549 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/stattrak, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $10.74 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $10.71 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $10.68 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $10.70 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $10.70 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $10.72 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $10.74 | 92.54% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $10.73 | 92.46% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $10.72 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $10.77 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $10.94 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $11.02 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $11.01 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $11.01 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $10.99 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $11.06 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $11.02 | 92.46% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $10.98 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $11.04 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $11.14 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $11.11 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $11.16 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $11.16 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.10 | 92.47% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $11.02 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.09 | 92.54% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $11.01 | 92.46% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $11.02 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $11.05 | 92.54% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $10.98 | 92.53% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%classified 1.1%covert 0.9%Ancient 0.2%Covert 0.1%Legendary 12.8%Classified 0.1%restricted 48.4%Mythical 36.5%best hit $514 (46.65x)