M4A1 Party

A case on SkinRave, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is SkinRave's own item price converted from skinrave token at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2.84
2.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
—
top-only feed: not summed
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedadvertised only

SkinRave publishes its notable drops only. Wins without losses cannot be summed, so this case shows what its odds advertise and no observed RTP. Drops listed below are the notable ones the feed showed.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0top-only feed——
7d3,969top-only feed—sample
30d6,871top-only feed—sample
All6,871top-only feed—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogSkinRave publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are SkinRave's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMéno$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$759759 SKINRAVE_TOKEN267.3x
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedAyyylmaoo710$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$759759 SKINRAVE_TOKEN267.3x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertL$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$715715 SKINRAVE_TOKEN251.9x
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covertJean-Claude van Dammriss$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$188188 SKINRAVE_TOKEN66.33x
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covertPornelius Hubert III$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$188188 SKINRAVE_TOKEN66.33x
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert10+ vodnik every day$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$149149 SKINRAVE_TOKEN52.53x
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covertSatoruGojo$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$149149 SKINRAVE_TOKEN52.53x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFCt Sun [BCX]$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFStargazing$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFκαμία διέξοδος$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFError$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFai$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFκαμία διέξοδος$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFError$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFκαμία διέξοδος$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFzFaem$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x
Sticker | Hello M4A1-Ssticker · #4B69FFJensen$2.842.84 SKINRAVE_TOKEN$0.640.64 SKINRAVE_TOKEN0.23x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Not summed for a top-only feed

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed