The Void

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.14

85,203 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $46.03 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.24%

428 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.76%±18.23348 openings

7 days

79.43%±16.52424 openings

30 days

79.24%±16.44428 openings

since tracking started

79.24%±16.44428 openings

56.0%76.3%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	348	74.76%±18.2	−1.6σ	odds
7d	424	79.43%±16.5	−1.3σ	odds
30d	428	79.24%±16.4	−1.3σ	odds
All	428	79.24%±16.4	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 428 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 200	$1,194 1,988,520 BUX	13.0%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 33	$150 249,116 BUX	9.7%	12	12.8	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$101 168,399 BUX	8.8%	14	17.1	0.82×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	10.0%	$83.52 139,144 BUX	18.1%	40	42.8	0.93×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	11.0%	$74.58 124,250 BUX	17.8%	42	47.1	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	28.5%	$38.29 63,791 BUX	23.7%	124	122.0	1.02×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$19.73 32,870 BUX	6.4%	60	64.2	0.93×
Lieutenant 'Tree Hugger' Farlow \| SWATagent · exceptional	12.0%	$6.45 10,745 BUX	1.7%	57	51.4	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$2.75 4,581 BUX	0.6%	53	42.8	1.24×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$1.03 1,715 BUX	0.1%	14	12.8	1.09×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$0.79 1,316 BUX	0.1%	11	12.8	0.86×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert$51.1485,203 BUX$1,1941,988,520 BUX23.34x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$51.1485,203 BUX$2.754,581 BUX0.05x13h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$51.1485,203 BUX$38.2963,791 BUX0.75x13h

SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$51.1485,203 BUX$19.7332,870 BUX0.39x13h

★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · CovertKronerkongen$51.1485,203 BUX$83.52139,144 BUX1.63x13h

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$51.1485,203 BUX$2.754,581 BUX0.05x13h

★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert$51.1485,203 BUX$83.52139,144 BUX1.63x13h

Lieutenant 'Tree Hugger' Farlow | SWATagent · exceptional$51.1485,203 BUX$6.4510,745 BUX0.13x13h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeKronerkongen$51.1485,203 BUX$1.031,715 BUX0.02x13h

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$51.1485,203 BUX$2.754,581 BUX0.05x13h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$51.1485,203 BUX$38.2963,791 BUX0.75x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$51.14	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 10.5%gold 3.0%covert 15.0%Classified 28.5%#4b69ff 15.0%exceptional 12.0%mil spec 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%Restricted 3.0%best hit $1,194 (23.34x)