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A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.48

12,462 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $6.73 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.27%

210 openings, odds method

Variance

13.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

113.27%±61.85132 openings

30 days

101.27%±49.03210 openings

since tracking started

101.27%±49.03210 openings

-0.5%106.8%214.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	46.07%±167.5	—	odds
7d	132	113.27%±61.8	+0.7σ	odds
30d	210	101.27%±49.0	+0.5σ	odds
All	210	101.27%±49.0	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$527 878,231 BUX	7.8%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 500	$358 596,827 BUX	10.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$134 223,377 BUX	6.0%	0	0.6	—
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$115 191,673 BUX	5.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 250	$94.80 157,936 BUX	5.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 250	$87.52 145,808 BUX	5.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 200	$69.15 115,203 BUX	5.1%	2	1.1	1.90×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$31.49 52,462 BUX	22.5%	10	10.1	0.99×
Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$10.59 17,642 BUX	7.9%	8	10.5	0.76×
P90 \| Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$8.85 14,744 BUX	6.6%	8	10.5	0.76×
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 17	$7.88 13,128 BUX	7.0%	11	12.6	0.87×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	10.0%	$3.14 5,231 BUX	4.7%	23	21.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	13.0%	$0.82 1,366 BUX	1.6%	29	27.3	1.06×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	13.0%	$0.65 1,082 BUX	1.3%	30	27.3	1.10×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	16.0%	$0.64 1,066 BUX	1.5%	33	33.6	0.98×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$0.41 683 BUX	1.5%	53	52.5	1.01×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert$7.4812,462 BUX$527878,231 BUX70.47x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$7.4812,462 BUX$0.41683 BUX0.05x5h

Souvenir P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeMulli$7.4812,462 BUX$10.5917,642 BUX1.42x5h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.4812,462 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.09x9h

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted$7.4812,462 BUX$3.145,231 BUX0.42x9h

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradekdeen$7.4812,462 BUX$0.651,082 BUX0.09x9h

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.4812,462 BUX$0.651,082 BUX0.09x9h

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$7.4812,462 BUX$0.41683 BUX0.05x9h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.4812,462 BUX$0.821,366 BUX0.11x9h

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedkdeen$7.4812,462 BUX$0.41683 BUX0.05x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$7.48	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 1.1%classified 5.1%Consumer Grade 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 53.0%Restricted 10.0%restricted 25.0%best hit $527 (70.47x)