Lightfoot Lockup
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.08
25,117 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.57 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.06%
80 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 80 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 118 | $252 420,565 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 44 | $116 194,022 BUX | 19.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 44 | $113 187,624 BUX | 18.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $68.45 114,037 BUX | 20.2% | 8 | 3.2 | 2.50× |
| Sticker | Move It (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 15.0% | $15.93 26,539 BUX | 17.6% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 25.7% | $2.54 4,231 BUX | 4.8% | 22 | 20.5 | 1.07× |
| Sticker | Silent Ninja (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 50.0% | $0.98 1,632 BUX | 3.6% | 35 | 40.0 | 0.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$15.0825,117 BUX$2.544,231 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.0825,117 BUX$68.45114,037 BUX4.54x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$15.0825,117 BUX$2.544,231 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$15.0825,117 BUX$2.544,231 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedwilleallden$15.0825,117 BUX$68.45114,037 BUX4.54x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$15.0825,117 BUX$2.544,231 BUX0.17x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$15.0825,117 BUX$68.45114,037 BUX4.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.08 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.9%classified 6.3%covert 2.3%Exotic 15.0%Restricted 25.7%Legendary 50.0%best hit —