Golden Fortune
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.16
8,592 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4.64 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.20%
1,067 openings, odds method
Variance
10.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,067 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $205 340,813 BUX | 4.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Golden (Gold) | London 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $173 288,501 BUX | 14.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.94× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $74.49 124,100 BUX | 16.0% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $71.60 119,285 BUX | 15.4% | 16 | 10.7 | 1.50× |
| Glock-18 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 40 | $32.88 54,778 BUX | 17.7% | 32 | 26.7 | 1.20× |
| Sticker | Luck Skill (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 1 in 20 | $5.11 8,513 BUX | 5.5% | 44 | 53.4 | 0.82× |
| P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified | 45.0% | $1.36 2,265 BUX | 13.2% | 474 | 480.2 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Good Lucksticker · High Grade | 45.0% | $1.32 2,199 BUX | 12.8% | 485 | 480.2 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.16 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%Extraordinary 0.4%covert 2.0%Mythical 2.5%Exotic 5.0%classified 45.0%High Grade 45.0%best hit —