Bet & Win
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.26
37,091 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $20.04 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.48%
35 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 35 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $553 922,097 BUX | 27.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $82.01 136,628 BUX | 8.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $72.07 120,068 BUX | 10.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $29.98 49,946 BUX | 18.0% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $12.54 20,891 BUX | 13.8% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $8.66 14,427 BUX | 13.0% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× |
| Aces High Pinpin · exotic | 30.0% | $5.82 9,696 BUX | 8.7% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.14× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $22.26 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 1.0%covert 14.0%classified 33.0%industrial 22.0%exotic 30.0%best hit —