Holographic Havoc
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.95
21,570 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.65 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.00%
80 openings, odds method
Variance
7.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 80 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $793 1,321,271 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $233 388,827 BUX | 10.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 111 | $165 274,756 BUX | 12.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 42 | $62.52 104,158 BUX | 12.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $50.19 83,616 BUX | 12.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 22 | $35.79 59,626 BUX | 13.8% | 10 | 3.6 | 2.78× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $14.01 23,340 BUX | 9.0% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $7.99 13,311 BUX | 6.9% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 71.1% | $2.45 4,081 BUX | 14.9% | 47 | 56.9 | 0.83× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedmakarass$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$7.9913,311 BUX0.62x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$7.9913,311 BUX0.62x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedKatteManden$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$12.9521,570 BUX$2.454,081 BUX0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.95 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%covert 11.0%restricted 10.9%Covert 2.4%Restricted 75.6%best hit —