Restricted Range

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.65

14,406 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $7.78 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.11%

89 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

54 openings · below min

30 days

89 openings · below min

since tracking started

89 openings · below min

51.0%91.3%131.5%

Small sample. 89 openings and 16.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	54	91.13%±39.5	—	odds
30d	89	97.11%±30.8	—	odds
All	89	97.11%±30.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$76.25 127,032 BUX	29.4%	4	2.7	1.50×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 15	$16.24 27,055 BUX	13.6%	3	5.8	0.52×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$10.37 17,276 BUX	11.3%	4	7.6	0.53×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$9.64 16,060 BUX	12.4%	10	8.9	1.12×
AUG \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$8.71 14,510 BUX	13.4%	13	10.7	1.22×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	15.0%	$5.01 8,346 BUX	9.7%	13	13.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	22.0%	$2.40 3,998 BUX	6.8%	23	19.6	1.17×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	23.0%	$1.17 1,949 BUX	3.5%	19	20.5	0.93×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.