Geological Gear
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.12
31,850 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.21 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
49.69%
120 openings, odds method
Variance
19.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 120 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 200 | $1,065 1,774,639 BUX | 31.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Souvenir Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 40 | $245 408,569 BUX | 35.6% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Red Rock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 10.0% | $20.00 33,320 BUX | 11.6% | 18 | 12.0 | 1.50× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 10.5% | $18.35 30,571 BUX | 11.2% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| Glock-18 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $7.56 12,594 BUX | 4.8% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $3.63 6,047 BUX | 3.2% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× |
| Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 16.5% | $1.50 2,499 BUX | 1.4% | 24 | 19.8 | 1.21× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 17.0% | $0.64 1,066 BUX | 0.6% | 15 | 20.4 | 0.74× |
| P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 17.0% | $0.53 882 BUX | 0.5% | 12 | 20.4 | 0.59× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$19.1231,850 BUX$18.3530,571 BUX0.96x
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$19.1231,850 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.03x
SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeKronerkongen$19.1231,850 BUX$3.636,047 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$19.1231,850 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$19.1231,850 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.03x
Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeKronerkongen$19.1231,850 BUX$1.502,499 BUX0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.12 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedBase Grade 0.5%industrial 13.5%Restricted 20.5%Consumer Grade 48.5%Mil Spec Grade 17.0%best hit —