City Lights
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.29
25,468 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.76 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.04%
110 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 333 | $244 406,404 BUX | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $187 310,925 BUX | 9.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $93.14 155,171 BUX | 6.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $55.09 91,779 BUX | 16.0% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 25 | $53.32 88,831 BUX | 15.5% | 9 | 4.4 | 2.05× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 25.0% | $12.42 20,691 BUX | 22.6% | 27 | 27.5 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 65.0% | $5.15 8,579 BUX | 24.3% | 68 | 71.5 | 0.95× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.29 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 0.3%covert 70.7%industrial 4.0%red 25.0%best hit —