Demon King
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.05
21,733 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.74 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.06%
137 openings, odds method
Variance
34.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 137 openings and 4.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | King on the Fieldsticker · high | 1 in 1,000 | $1,634 2,722,227 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $1,227 2,043,382 BUX | 20.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 37 | $84.26 140,377 BUX | 19.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 14 | $24.47 40,767 BUX | 14.6% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× |
| Patch | Metal Silver Demonpatch · Exotic | 10.0% | $18.08 30,121 BUX | 15.4% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× |
| Inferno Pinpin · exotic | 30.0% | $5.41 9,013 BUX | 13.8% | 45 | 41.1 | 1.09× |
| P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted | 50.0% | $0.47 783 BUX | 2.0% | 61 | 68.5 | 0.89× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$13.0521,733 BUX$84.26140,377 BUX6.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.05 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%Covert 2.7%Classified 7.0%Exotic 10.0%exotic 30.0%Restricted 50.0%best hit —