Hellfire Heirloom
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.82
1,372 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.05%
EV $0.74 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.36%
4,437 openings, odds method
Variance
13.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,441 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 10,000 | $70.66 117,719 BUX | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · Remarkable | 1 in 526 | $58.12 96,827 BUX | 14.9% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 167 | $13.68 22,790 BUX | 11.1% | 24 | 26.6 | 0.90× |
| MAC-10 | Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 100 | $7.96 13,261 BUX | 10.7% | 39 | 44.4 | 0.88× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 67 | $4.55 7,580 BUX | 9.2% | 84 | 66.6 | 1.26× |
| Sticker | Battle Scarredsticker · violet | 1 in 29 | $3.19 5,314 BUX | 15.1% | 162 | 155.4 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare | 1 in 50 | $2.08 3,465 BUX | 5.6% | 87 | 88.8 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $0.53 882 BUX | 14.3% | 852 | 888.2 | 0.96× |
| UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 71.2% | $0.19 316 BUX | 18.2% | 3,182 | 3162.0 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · RemarkableMagnum357$0.821,372 BUX$58.1296,827 BUX70.57x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · RemarkableMagnum357$0.821,372 BUX$58.1296,827 BUX70.57x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · RemarkableRonnie Dog Dog$0.821,372 BUX$58.1296,827 BUX70.57x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · RemarkableExside$0.821,372 BUX$58.1296,827 BUX70.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.82 | 90.05% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 0.6%Remarkable 0.2%Restricted 21.0%Industrial Grade 1.5%violet 3.5%Rare 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 71.2%best hit $58.12 (70.57x)