Stellar Strike
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.58
2,630 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1.42 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.61%
1,240 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,240 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Astralis (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · Exotic | 1 in 400 | $88.82 147,974 BUX | 15.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| Sticker | Space Soldiers (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · Exotic | 1 in 100 | $18.38 30,621 BUX | 12.9% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 29 | $5.52 9,196 BUX | 13.6% | 35 | 43.4 | 0.81× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $4.07 6,780 BUX | 11.5% | 53 | 49.6 | 1.07× |
| PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 42.8% | $1.02 1,699 BUX | 30.7% | 530 | 530.1 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 48.5% | $0.46 766 BUX | 15.7% | 609 | 601.4 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffThe broke man with a plan to ban$1.582,630 BUX$1.021,699 BUX0.65x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1.58 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExotic 1.3%restricted 3.5%classified 4.0%#8847ff 42.8%milspec 48.5%best hit $88.82 (56.26x)