Space Exploring
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.44
5,726 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $3.09 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.82%
1,145 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,145 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $124 207,200 BUX | 20.1% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $18.58 30,954 BUX | 12.0% | 23 | 22.9 | 1.00× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 20 | $6.20 10,329 BUX | 10.0% | 61 | 57.3 | 1.07× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $5.15 8,579 BUX | 20.0% | 133 | 137.4 | 0.97× |
| MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $3.18 5,297 BUX | 15.4% | 172 | 171.8 | 1.00× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $2.88 4,798 BUX | 14.0% | 170 | 171.8 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Space Marine (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 15.0% | $0.90 1,499 BUX | 4.4% | 149 | 171.8 | 0.87× |
| Sticker | Blood Moon Wave Ridersticker · High Grade | 35.5% | $0.36 599 BUX | 4.1% | 429 | 406.5 | 1.06× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Gradeuser-81c4ab$3.445,726 BUX$3.185,297 BUX0.93x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $3.44 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.5%classified 2.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Restricted 15.0%Remarkable 15.0%High Grade 35.5%best hit —