Oceanic Odyssey

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.13

18,550 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $10.02 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.69%

202 openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

59.79%±45.70139 openings

30 days

80.69%±37.91202 openings

since tracking started

80.69%±37.91202 openings

-0.5%81.8%164.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	28.80%±134.7	—	odds
7d	139	59.79%±45.7	−1.3σ	odds
30d	202	80.69%±37.9	−0.5σ	odds
All	202	80.69%±37.9	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 202 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$224 373,783 BUX	22.4%	2	2.0	0.99×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$115 191,673 BUX	23.0%	4	4.0	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$113 187,624 BUX	22.5%	2	4.0	0.50×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$9.78 16,293 BUX	9.8%	24	20.2	1.19×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	25.0%	$3.14 5,231 BUX	7.8%	47	50.5	0.93×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	28.0%	$2.59 4,314 BUX	7.2%	54	56.6	0.95×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	32.0%	$2.30 3,831 BUX	7.3%	69	64.6	1.07×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted$11.1318,550 BUX$3.145,231 BUX0.28x12h

XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$11.1318,550 BUX$2.303,831 BUX0.21x12h

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restrictedkdeen$11.1318,550 BUX$3.145,231 BUX0.28x12h

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified$11.1318,550 BUX$9.7816,293 BUX0.88x13h

XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$11.1318,550 BUX$2.303,831 BUX0.21x13h

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted$11.1318,550 BUX$3.145,231 BUX0.28x13h

XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalkdeen$11.1318,550 BUX$2.303,831 BUX0.21x13h

Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$11.1318,550 BUX$2.594,314 BUX0.23x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:48 UTC	$11.13	90.00%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.0%classified 12.0%Restricted 25.0%Industrial Grade 28.0%Mythical 32.0%best hit —