Sinister Shadows
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.00
1,658 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.43%
1,086 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.23% – 105.62%, 1,086 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,086 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 400 | $16.75 27,905 BUX | 4.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.84× |
| FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $6.67 11,112 BUX | 9.3% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.10× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 50 | $4.55 7,580 BUX | 10.2% | 37 | 21.7 | 1.70× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 16.0% | $1.07 1,782 BUX | 19.1% | 190 | 173.8 | 1.09× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 16.0% | $1.02 1,699 BUX | 18.2% | 151 | 173.8 | 0.87× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 16.0% | $0.98 1,632 BUX | 17.5% | 142 | 173.8 | 0.82× |
| Music Kit | Meechy Darko, Gothic Luxurymusic kit · High Grade | 22.5% | $0.48 799 BUX | 12.0% | 272 | 244.3 | 1.11× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 26.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 9.0% | 274 | 282.4 | 0.97× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.001,658 BUX$0.981,632 BUX0.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.001,658 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.31x
Music Kit | Meechy Darko, Gothic Luxurymusic kit · High Gradeuser-dedb78$1.001,658 BUX$0.48799 BUX0.48x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.001,658 BUX$1.071,782 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.001,658 BUX$0.981,632 BUX0.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradeuser-dedb78$1.001,658 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.31x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.001,658 BUX$1.071,782 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.001,658 BUX$0.981,632 BUX0.98x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.001,658 BUX$0.31516 BUX0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1.00 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 32.3%restricted 17.3%Industrial Grade 28.0%High Grade 22.5%best hit —