Arcane Archieves
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.12
6,856 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3.70 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.12%
538 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 562 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $39.94 66,540 BUX | 32.4% | 18 | 16.9 | 1.07× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $5.15 8,579 BUX | 8.3% | 33 | 33.7 | 0.98× |
| Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 12.0% | $4.26 7,097 BUX | 13.8% | 75 | 67.4 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 16.0% | $3.60 5,997 BUX | 15.6% | 85 | 89.9 | 0.95× |
| P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 18.0% | $2.43 4,048 BUX | 11.8% | 118 | 101.2 | 1.17× |
| SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $1.86 3,098 BUX | 10.0% | 110 | 112.4 | 0.98× |
| Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $1.20 1,999 BUX | 8.1% | 123 | 140.5 | 0.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$4.126,856 BUX$1.201,999 BUX0.29x
Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrialALT-F4$4.126,856 BUX$1.201,999 BUX0.29x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.126,856 BUX$3.605,997 BUX0.87x
Souvenir MP7 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$4.126,856 BUX$1.201,999 BUX0.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $4.12 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.0%#8847ff 32.0%classified 16.0%industrial 25.0%best hit —