Hieroglyphic Depths
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.78
2,968 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1.60 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.28%
817 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 888 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $10.72 17,859 BUX | 33.4% | 58 | 44.4 | 1.31× |
| P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $5.22 8,696 BUX | 32.6% | 82 | 88.8 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | Ancient Beast (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 20.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 11.0% | 183 | 177.6 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $0.77 1,282 BUX | 9.6% | 187 | 177.6 | 1.05× |
| P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.64 1,066 BUX | 8.0% | 171 | 177.6 | 0.96× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $0.35 583 BUX | 5.5% | 207 | 222.0 | 0.93× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.782,968 BUX$10.7217,859 BUX6.02x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.782,968 BUX$0.771,282 BUX0.43x
Souvenir AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$1.782,968 BUX$10.7217,859 BUX6.02x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.782,968 BUX$0.771,282 BUX0.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.78 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 5.0%restricted 10.0%Exotic 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%milspec 45.0%best hit —